the deep left defeats assad.

the speed of the car.

If I show you a picture of a car, can you tell me how fast it’s going, or in what direction? Can you tell me if it’s parked, or moving at all?

Did something actually happen?

The only way to gauge speed from a photograph is when the photo is blurry, slow, and imprecise. When you turn up the shutter speed, you actually lose information about speed, even though you gain other information — more precise details, for example.

The advantage of precision is that you can more easily read fine details, like license plate numbers. Studies on men and women show that testosterone helps men keep track of moving objects, while women are more likely to perceive fine distinctions between colors.

In politics, if you are very pedantic, details-oriented, and precise, you will miss the speed and direction, where things are going. Sometimes a blurry photograph is more useful than a precise one.

As a leftist, I am eager to be on the winning team. This colors and biases my vision, but does not blind me. I’ve written about what Democrats need to do to win in 2028, and to take back the white vote by 2040. But even in defeat, there is reason to believe that Trump has moved the Republican Party to the left on certain social issues, like gay rights, abortion, and race. Trump even allows his trans supporters to use the female bathroom at Mar-a-Lago.

With the fall of Assad, there is no need to cope. After 13 years of reversals, uncertainty, and ambiguity, NATO has won in Syria, while Russia and Iran have lost. That’s a victory for the deep left.

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The right-wing vision of the world, so precisely laid out by Tucker Carlson, Mike Benz, and Joe Rogan, is this:

Russia is a white, Christian, wholesome chungus radical traditionalist ethnostate for all peoples of Eurasia. Russia respects human rights, ethnic rights, religious rights, while fighting the satanic tower of Babel new world order. Men are men, women are women, and children are free from transgender propaganda.

America, on the other hand, is the satanic new world order. America doesn’t respect the rights of ethnic Russians, because Victoria Nuland hates Russians (and maybe all white people). The goal of America is global white genocide, and the genocide of all people through pod living, low birth rates, and bug eating. Democrats like Jeffrey Epstein and Hunter Biden traffic child prostitutes, and they use the proceeds to fund Zelensky, who has banned Christianity.¹

All of this sets the stage for the conflict in Syria.

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According to the right, Assad, an ally of Russia, is the good guy, while America is the bad guy. The defeat of Assad is a defeat of the neo-isolationist Russian-right, and a win for the interventionist American-left.

Representing the neo-isolationists who oppose American involvement in foreign wars is Mike Benz. It was quite comical to hear Mike go on Joe Rogan to complain about the CIA, and suggest that free speech was “never before influenced by the government until 2017.” He kept talking about heart attack guns, which I found bizarre. He also claims to have gone deep undercover for years as a fake white nationalist under the name “Frame Games Radio.” He argued that he never believed in white nationalism, but his goal was to pretend to be a Jewish white nationalist in order to make white nationalists less antisemitic. Very trustworthy guy.

All of that aside:

Mike Benz asserts without evidence that the CIA only influenced the left-wing during the Cold War, and never the right-wing. This is patently false and doesn’t engage with the evidence. The conservative movement was full of CIA assets, including William F. Buckley. It is ridiculous to assert that the CIA never used its influence on the right wing during the Cold War. But Benz distorts history, using the absence of argument as evidence, in order to fearmonger and pretend that the government is doing something uniquely bad since 2017. There’s nothing new here.

There is a huge difference between “the right to freedom of speech” and “freedom from government influence.” The government has the right to brainwash kids with morality and political ideology — it’s called education! Some conservatives want to abolish public education, but the Prussian school system is the basis of a strong state. I much prefer the brainwashing of the state over the brainwashing of conservative homeschooling.

There are some conservatives who agree with me that public school should include the Aeneid, Julius Caesar’s Gallic War, and Shakespeare. I was privileged enough to be assigned these readings in public school. The woke backlash against “dead white males” is misdirected aggression by confused or malicious actors.

The neo-isolationists are correct in this respect: the Global American Empire is the best vehicle for promoting leftism. And since white men disproportionately volunteer to fight and die in America’s wars, especially in our special forces, they deserve some level of respect and deference.

By leftism, I mean:

• environmental regulation and organic farming

• sexual freedom and gay rights

• women’s rights and the right to choose

• immigrant rights (opposition to mass deportations)

• reproductive rights and genetic freedom

• the right to euthanasia, birth control, and family planning

• animal rights and conservation

• urbanism and infrastructure spending

• stem cell research

• free college for all

• public health and support for vaccines

• institutionalism and credentialism

Maybe you agree with this list, or maybe you aren’t convinced that this is sufficiently leftist. If you are a conservative, and you aren’t disgusted by this list, maybe we can be friends.

How does this relate to Syria?

In the case of Syria, the problem with the opposition is that, prior to Turkish involvement, they were generally Wahabi Salafists with connections to Al Qaeda. That doesn’t sound very leftist to me. But Turkey changed the game.

The battle of ideas.

“We are not talking about rule by individuals, or personal whims, it’s about institutional governance.”

Who said it? Was it Nancy Pelosi, criticizing Trump? Was it a Harvard professor, waxing poetic about democratic norms and checks and balances? How about this:

Someone who rigidly clings to certain ideas and principles without flexibility cannot effectively lead societies, or navigate complex conflicts, like the one happening in Syria.

This man is truly a master of HR politically correct speech. And to top it off:

There must be a legal framework that protects and ensures the rights of all. Not a system that serves only one sect, as Assad's regime has done.

Al-Jolani is probably not going to bring gay pride parades to Aleppo. Nor is he going to promote abortion rights, or any of my pet causes. But in comparison with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Jordan, he is, in relative terms, a moderate when it comes to social, religious, and ethnic diversity.

When ISIS was targeting Kurds, Yazidis, Shia, and Alawites in 2015, Assad may have been the lesser of two evils. ISIS did not merely preach Jihad; it destroyed monuments, sexually enslaved women, conducted beheadings and drownings; and threw gays off of rooftops.

I am not naive enough to believe that the change in rhetoric came unprompted. It was quite literally a conspiracy between the Turkish government and the Syrian rebels to craft a more pragmatic and less sectarian coalition. I would not be surprised if some international PR firm was hired to coach Jolani in lib-speak.

The involvement of Turkey in Syria has been massive, and Turkey is a relatively secular² and pragmatic NATO-aligned state. Turkey understands that ethnocentrism and sectarianism fuel the fears of Syria’s minorities against the rebels, and forces them to support Assad as their protector. In negotiations with rebels, Turkey pressured its allies to make concessions toward tolerance and respect for human rights. This change did not come in a single day, but was the result of years of prompting, funding, training, and discussion.

If Syria emerges as a more tolerant society, more accepting of cultural, religious, and ethnic differences, this will demonstrate the strength of leftism for navigating human differences. But perhaps this is too optimistic; maybe Syria will slide backwards over time. That remains to be seen.

War with Iran has begun!

The victors of this conflict are Israel and NATO, while the losers are Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia.

Tucker Carlson, Rogan, and the neo-isolationists have been pushing the rhetoric that “neo-cons want war with Iran/Russia, and war with Iran/Russia is the worst thing ever.” Specifically, they seem to be allergic to the phrase “regime change.” Well, regime change just happened, and it seems pretty good to me.

I agree that a direct ground invasion of Iran/Russia is probably not a good idea. Even though Iran/Russia has dramatically underperformed in its offensive capacities, it is a mountainous/huge country with tunnels and underground bases. It is reasonable to be concerned about Russia’s nuclear weapons. I also have expressed concern with the possibility that Iran could mine the Straits of Hormuz, leading to a global economic recession. But war is a spectrum, or as Lavrov says, there is “hybrid warfare.” War with Iran or Russia does not necessitate a ground invasion or nuclear exchange; it can be done through proxies in Ukraine or in Syria.

The war with Iran has already begun, in Syria. Here, the Russians and Iranians ran away without a fight. Hezbollah is cut off from Iran, and Russia has demonstrated that it cannot protect its closest ally outside of Europe. African countries are paying close attention to how Russia has failed to honor its commitments to Assad, and they will have to take this into account when negotiating with Wagner in the future.

Whether or not Syria becomes more conservative or more liberal over time, the defeat of Duginism and Eurasianism is a victory for Atlanticist Americanism. The humiliation of Iran is a victory for Israel and America. The fight is far from over, but a battle has been won.

As NATO fights (through Turkey) in Syria and in Ukraine, these two wars must be considered as part of a larger conflict. Months ago, the Syrian conflict was considered to be “frozen.” Today, the future of Ukraine is uncertain.

What about Ukraine?

If Ukraine does fall to Russian forces as the result of a Trump surrender, this is a tragedy for Europe. Russia is a proxy of China, and having Chinese or North Korean troops on NATO’s border is a serious security threat. However, taken together, Ukraine has served as a major drain on Russia’s capabilities, and the Ukrainian resistance has directly influenced the outcome in Syria. This may not be a consolation to the dead of Ukraine, but in the larger geopolitical conflict, Russia is worse off today than it was before the war began in 2022. It is possible for “both sides” in the Ukraine conflict to lose, because the Ukraine conflict is just one part in a larger New Cold War (America vs China).

My hope is that Trump is able to normalize relations with Iran under new Abraham Accords. This sounds impossible today, but the Abraham Accords were themselves revolutionary and surprising. A one-state solution in Israel, with Palestinians granted rights to property, employment, and physical safety (as 2 million Arab Israelis enjoy) also sounds like a pipe dream, but I’m going to put it on Santa’s list anyway. And while we are at it, I hope Mohammed bin Salman continues to liberalize Saudi Arabia and open that society to a more western way of thinking.

If I am allowed to engage in this much wishful thinking, I also hope that Trump surprises me, and takes a hard line in Ukraine. That might be too much. Baby steps.

Conclusion.

The defeat of Assad proves that, although the war waged for 13 years, NATO won in the end. America is not finished. Russia is a power in terminal decline, due to mass immigration, low native birth rates, and its demotion to China’s lackey. The west shares these vulnerabilities, but has navigated them more adeptly due to its open-mindedness, flexibility, and creativity, whereas Russia is still locked in an authoritarian, autocratic, and petty-xenophobic mindset.

Iran has been exposed as a paper lion. Hezbollah, if it survives at all, will be a shadow of its former self. Israel won a great victory. If a ceasefire in Gaza can be achieved, the next stage for Israel will be to resolve its own internal left-right conflict.

Will Israel permit the Haredi to shrug national service on fundamentalist grounds? Will Israel permit Netanyahu to escape from prosecution, and allow its judiciary to become a puppet of his designs? Will Israel turn its back on the rights of sexual and ethnic minorities, or uphold liberal principles? It is the cultural and religious war within Israel which will determine the value of Assad’s overthrow, in the long term.

Anatoly Karlin has cautioned against celebrating the fall of Assad too hard, since Ukraine is still “100x more important”:

I agree with Karlin that the impact on Russia is modest, and the biggest losers are Hezbollah and Iran. But the propaganda value of the victory should not be understated. Sunni Muslims can observe the success of NATO in Syria, and see that through compromise with America and Israel, they can achieve a better deal than with the Russians or Iranians. That strengthens the American-Israeli axis, and makes the neo-isolationist argument look weak.

Every day that I advocate for Ukraine, some right-winger is in my replies telling me,

Give up! America is going to collapse in 5 years! It’s inevitable! It’s all over! Nothing matters! Stop fighting for the GAE!

No; America’s economic innovation, military alliances, and forceful promotion of progress are not over. We have not peaked. There is work to be done.

All empires fall. All men die. This is not a reason to despair, but to shoot for the stars. If all things end, why fear the end? Why limit ourselves, when there is nothing to fear? Let’s go for gold, and let nothing hold us back from achieving our dreams.

America is on the cusp of an AI revolution and unlocking the secrets of human genetics. With such powerful tools at our fingertips, the impossible becomes possible. We can geo-engineer Canada and Antarctica into a green and lush paradise; we can build cities on the sea-floor or the surface of the waves; we can build monuments to beauty and the triumph of the human spirit.

Superficial leftists, whose identity revolves around BLM and COVID masks, or whatever the flavor of the day is, cost Kamala the election. Mistakes were made. Correction is needed. Reform can only occur from within the trenches — not sniping from the sidelines.

Conservatives tell me that the system cannot be reformed; nothing can change; it’s all hopeless. But with the fall of Assad, this sounds like more of a personal problem than a reflection of the state of American civilization. I see Gavin Newsom cleaning up homeless encampments; I see Republican Hindus and transwomen softening the hardliners in the Christian conservative movement; I see NATO making Syria into a proxy state, protecting minorities from genocide, and allowing them freedom of religion.

Turkey isn’t perfect, especially with regards to the Kurds. Baby steps. Sometimes you need a blurry picture to see where the car is going.

1. On the issue of Israel, the right wing is split between Christian Zionists who want to build a third temple with red heifers to bring back Jesus, and the Candace Owens wing who thinks Netanyahu is just as anti-Christian as Zelensky.

Elon Musk has vacillated between unabashed antisemitism (“you have said the actual truth”) and self-described “philo-semitism.” There is a relationship between Netanyahu and neo-isolationism, who sees some forms of right-wing antisemitism somewhat favorably, in relative terms. The right-wing has a very complicated relationship with Jews and Israel.

Based on polling and church attendance, the Christian Zionists are in decline. The Elon Musk, Candace Owens, Vivek, Rogan, and Lavrov-wing of “Israel skepticism” is contradictory and paradoxical, but directionally, it is much more critical of Israel than Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, and Mike Huckabee.

2. Turkey is much less secular than America, but still more secular than all other countries in the Middle East. Women in Turkey do not need to wear a veil, for example.