the Israel Question.

I have never spoken to anyone about Israel where we end up liking each other more after having a conversation. Far right, far left, centrist, doesn’t matter.

[One exception: Non-Zionism]

Each side weaponizes moral grievances in accordance with a predetermined conclusion. If Hamas set off a nuclear weapon in Tel Aviv tomorrow, or if Israel did the same in Gaza, none of the most hardcore supporters on either side would change their opinion. They would surely figure out a way to justify it.

The battle lines are already drawn, and each tragedy which occurs is merely fuel for either side for their respective social media marketing campaigns.

My preference would be that Israel would relinquish its Jewish identity and adopt a South African style flag:

However, this is impossible. Since Israel will remain an ethno-theocracy, the responsibility of the United States is to consider its interests in the region coldly.

America is an empire.

Like all empires, it must prevent the rise of competitors. Iran is the best competitor to America in the region. Israel and Saudi Arabia are the biggest enemies of Iran. As such, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the natural allies of America. The problem with these alliances is that Saudi Arabia has a history of promoting terrorism, and Israeli society seems to be radicalizing into a Messianic kleptocracy.

Obama tried to do a deal with Iran. Trump blew up that deal. It’s not too late to do another deal. What would be tragic is if America repeated the mistakes of Afghanistan, where it invades a country, occupies it, and then 20 years later finds the same exact people are in charge. That would be a huge waste of time and money. America could certainly launch a successful invasion of Iran, but I am not confident that it could successfully withdraw. Afghanistan was a complete failure.

Can we trust Iran to make a rational deal? Can we trust Israel?

Iranian Insanity

Anthony Blinken said, back in July of 2024, that the Iranians would have a bomb in two weeks.

Supposedly, Iran was already capable of this back in 2009. That was in line with predictions back in 2004 that it would take at most 5 years. In 2013, it was only one month away. But by 2015, still no bomb. In 2017, Netanyahu predicted that Iran would have 100 nuclear bombs by 2027. This history of "wolf crying" led Micah Zenko to write that “Iran's Been Two Years Away From a Nuclear Weapon for Three Decades.”

It’s hard to take these hysterical predictions very seriously.

Let’s imagine that Iran develops one nuclear bomb, capable of taking out Tel Aviv, a city of 436k people. Or, even worse from a religious perspective, imagine that Iran bombs Jerusalem, with 874k people. This would instantly kill up to 15% of Israel’s Jewish population. Conceivably, with 7 nuclear bombs, Iran could “wipe Israel off the map.”

The response would be reciprocal. Iran would not longer exist, either. The argument from Sean Hannity is that, because Iran is run by religious extremists, it will embrace “the call of martyrdom” and engage in this act of national suicide. But who is running Israel?

Israeli Insanity

Is it Amihai Eliyahu, who suggested dropping an atomic bomb on Gaza? Is it Yizhak Pindrus, who said that gay Jews are a bigger threat than Hamas? Or is it Moshe Gafni, who declared that Jewish women in the IDF weren’t real Jews?

Gafni said that while he condemns Pindrus’s choice of words [calling female soldiers “Shiksa”], he stands by the position that ultra-Orthodox authorities are the ones who should have the last say on conversions to Judaism in Israel.

“We need to discuss this with the facts, and on the facts we are right; he shouldn’t bring up words like that, people might worry that what we’re saying is incorrect. What we’re saying is correct,” said Gafni.

Out of the 120 seats in the Knesset, theocratic parties control 11 through the Shas Party, and 7 through the United Torah Judaism Party. This is proportionate to the number of Orthodox or Haredi Jews in Israel, about 15%. This proportion is only expected to increase over time.

Joining this far-right coalition is Otzma Yehudit, which is slightly less theocratic, and controls 6 seats, which is the party of Amihai “Just Nuke Them” Eliyahu. Its leader is Itamar Ben Gvir, who argued last year that “I still think spitting at Christians is not a criminal case. I think we need to act on it through instruction and education. Not everything justifies an arrest.”

On the more moderate side of the political spectrum, Bezalel Smotrich claimed that it would be "just and moral" to "starve 2 million people," and the only reason why Israel hadn't already done this is because “it’s not possible in today’s global reality to manage a war — no one will allow us.”

Bizarrely, Smotrich also claimed that homosexuality is “worse than bestiality.” Thankfully, he promised not to stone gays to death, adding that his promises were very faithful:

“I may be a far-right person, a homophobe, racist, fascist, but my word is my bond.”

A new political party was founded in 2019, Noam, with the explicit purpose of eliminating homosexuality, liberalism, and feminism, by creating "a fourth branch of government, the Chief Rabbinate."

Adding the Haredi seats (18) together with Smotrich (7), Ben-Gvir (6), and Noam (1) gives a total of 32 seats, or 27% of parliament.

Avigdor Liberman declared that “there are no innocents in Gaza” in 2018, long before October 7th. His party, Yisrael Beiteinu, is standing in the opposition, because they find Netanyahu’s coalition with theocrats to be a betrayal of Israeli’s largely secular population, the Hiloni.

Liberman protested specifically against the Noam Party’s idea of excluding non-practicing Jews from aliyah:

“Apparently Avi Maoz also wants to block them from entering Israeli society [..] for purity of blood.”¹

The unfortunate reality is that while abandoning Israel to Hamas wouldn’t result in a saner world, Israel itself has a deep seated and seemingly implacable problem with theocracy and polarization. How can this be solved?

Solution?

If there is a solution, it involves de-radicalizing and marginalizing the Haredi population, by the following measures:

1. Defund all religious education in Israel.

2. Jail, indefinitely, any 18 year old, male or female, who refuses military service.

3. Make public school mandatory. Compel all Haredi children to attend co-ed secular schools.

With these reforms, it is possible that the Haredi community will shrivel up into a shadow of its former self. At that point, it may be possible for Israel to emerge out of the 21st century as a secular, modern, liberal democracy.

I highly doubt that any of this will happen. The current demand of the Netanyahu government, that Haredi males enlist in the military, is being strongly resisted.

source

Even if the Haredi do join the IDF, this doesn’t mean that they will deradicalize. In fact, it implies the opposite: Haredi infiltration of the IDF will turn that institution into a vehicle for radical Judaism, rather than secularizing the Haredi community.

Withdrawal

It is possible that there is no solution. This is the view of Messianic Christians, who see the building of a Third Temple as an inevitable fulfillment of prophecy. In this view, secular Judaism will die, and a theocratic state will be established in Jerusalem. If this is the case, then America has no business supporting this venture, and is better off washing its hands of the region.

There seems to be a group within the Deep State who I call the “Chinese dissident” faction. This faction believes that America needs to stop trying to interfere in every global conflict, ranging from Venezuela to Ukraine to Somalia to Yemen to Iran, and to focus single-mindedly on China. This means a total disengagement from the Middle East, and a re-engagement with Asia.

Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Steve Bannon seem to be the public-facing figureheads of this faction. Whether or not they understand their role, or whether they are being promoted by larger forces beyond their comprehension, is not publicly known. They say crazy things, but continue to be supported by large institutions.

• Candace is magically shielded from being banned off any platform, despite being much more slanderous and inflammatory than Alex Jones or Nick Fuentes. She literally says that “Talmudic Jews are evil” and remains on Youtube. If that’s not “hatred against an ethic or religious group,” or textbook antisemitism, I don’t know what is.

• Tucker, despite allying with Candace, continues to be invited to the White House. Why? By whom?

• Steve Bannon has deep ties to Chinese dissident, Guo Wengui, and formerly worked in naval intelligence, similar to Jack Posobiec.

At the fringes of this hardcore group, you have people like Meaghan Kelly, who play footsie with Candace. Even JD Vance refused Ben Shapiro’s call to “cancel” this group.

If the “Chinese dissident” theory is correct, then Vance and Tucker align in the following way: they want to withdraw America from the Middle East and Ukraine, so that they can launch a full-on assault against China.

In the case of Vance, he is trying to apply to Zionists by allowing them a free hand to terrorize the West Bank however they wish. This seems morally abhorrent, but it is practical.

Conclusion.

The woke position is “from the river to the sea.” This is simply not happening.

The liberal Zionist position is also not happening.

At the same time, however, America support for Israel is declining, and there is clearly a powerful conglomeration of forces behind Tucker, Owens, and Bannon who are pushing for a full disengagement from the American-Israeli alliance.

Whether I like any of this or not doesn’t matter. It is what it is.

It future of the Middle East is a balance of power between Saudi-Judaica and Iran. Good luck to all involved — America is slowly but surely peacing out.

If you want to read more, you can find all my other essays on Israel here.

1. The opposition to the Netanyahu coalition is not necessarily more moderate in its stance, but often is a conglomeration of haters who see Netanyahu as corrupt. This is somewhat similar to the Jobbik Party in Hungary, which began as a far right ideological party, but eventually became a protest vote against Viktor Orban.