Israel will be more anti-gay than Saudi Arabia in 2040.

and I have the NUMBERS to prove it.

NZ has this tendency to write extremely long winded sentences for comedic effect. If you can follow the cadence and point of the sentence for long enough, it is funny. But in his article on Nationalism and Rationalism, I often got lost in the Hebrew words. I wondered, for the first half, what was even going on.

By the end things were simplified.

There are two strains of Judaism in Israel:

1. Wacky, crazy, but insufficiently violent.

2. Violence loving, while claiming to be “rational.”

NZ describes the latter movement as producing music videos where Jews literally dance while bombs hit Gaza. This paragraph is good:

“Look, Zionists, if you want to tell me that there’s no choice under the circumstances but to do that kind of stuff, I’m with you. If you want to tell me you don’t have emotional space to sympathise with the civilians who hate you getting their various appendages blown off in the process, then fine. If you confide that actually you’re happy about it, then, OK, it’s not very edifying, but who am I to judge? Just try and keep it to yourself. But at least retain somewhere on your person the awareness that it’s not cool. Don’t dance about it.”

On Twitter, I asked Mischrev which of us is going to write this article first: “The Shmulification of Jewry.” The premise is that, if you compare Rabbi Shmuley to any prominent American Rabbi from 1844 to 1945, it’s like comparing a televangelist to the Pope.

There’s been an extreme dive in standards around decorum, humility, and basic common sense. The Rabbi Shmuley PR strategy is aggression, aggression, and more aggression. Oh, the goyim don’t like us? Well, have they considered that we sell dildos and bomb Gazans? Oh, they don’t like that? ANTISEMITE, JEW HATER, NAZI HOLOCAUST!!!

Shmuley is pro-gay, probably, but his aggressive attitude is part of a larger phenomenon of the right-wing slopification of Jewry.

Shmuley fulfills a caricature of a chutzpah-filled, introspection-bereft, attention-whore cry-bully. Why? Why do Jews become the thing that they are accused of being? Why are they molding themselves to such hostile archetypes?

Black people do this too, with black nationalism, and white people also do this, as we see in my comment’s section and at Charlottesville. People embody the villain archetype under two circumstances:

1. They feel that there will be no negative consequences for doing so.

2. They are narcissists who believe that “any publicity is good publicity.”

NZ and Mischrev disagree with both. Jews should seek good publicity (look at our Nobel Prizes, our doctors, our charitable work) and desperately avoid bad publicity (look at us dancing while bombs go off in Gaza. No, seriously, look, I just posted a video of me, an IDF soldier, dancing while bombs go off.)

In fact, bad publicity is so bad that it would be better to have no publicity than to have bad publicity. It would be preferable for goyim to ask, “wait, Jews, what are those? Never heard of them” than to say “oh yeah Jews? The guys who dance while Gaza is bombed? Yeah everyone knows about those people.”

If the Nazis were alive today, would they be posting TikTok videos of them dancing while bombing Warsaw? I imagine that if they did, Himmler would have those soldiers executed. I’m not trying to say that Zionists are more evil than Nazis, but that, putting morality aside, there is no self-interested justification for broadcasting these sentiments.

In the case of the Nazis, they didn’t have TikTok, but imagine if a German newspaper decided to print a photo of a concentration camp with a German soldier doing the Polka next to starving inmates. What do you think would happen to that newspaper?

Israelis, and Jews broadly, seem to have a sense of invincibility. Nothing they can do or say would ever make antisemitism better or worse, so the idea that someone might stumble upon a bomb-dance and think “Jews bad” is not a serious consideration. Antisemitism is a mysterious cosmic disease from another dimension and has nothing to do with the behavior of Jews. If you suggest otherwise, you are antisemitic, and your opinion can be swiftly discarded, so that we can get back to filming more bomb-dances.

I remember having this conversation last year with a Zionist who argued to me that “the only reason people are antisemitic is because they are jealous that Israel has an ethnostate and they do not.” He said this smugly and arrogantly. I argued that this clearly wasn’t the case: many states are de facto ethnostates: Belarus, China, Japan, Poland, Hungary... No one hates these states out of “jealousy.”

Right-wingers hate Israel because they believe that Jews are hypocritical, in being highly ethnocentric, while attacking white nationalism (Nazis). Left-wingers hate Israel because it is a settler colonialist state, like Rhodesia and Apartheid South Africa and America itself. No “jealousy” is required.

His response was to change the topic without any self-reflection. Over the next few weeks he passive-aggressively dropped some hints that he could beat me up, in real life, because he is a big strong bear Jew and I am a little nebbish Adam Friedland. Oy vey!

You try to help these people, and they do not listen.

Because Israel is so technologically dominant, and because France and Britain and America all have supported Israel’s missile defense, Israeli military superiority makes it seemingly invincible. Jews can continue lying about the nature of antisemitism, referring to it as a cosmic force from beyond this world; they can delude themselves and act like sadistic freaks; and there isn’t an army of the goyim coming to teach them a lesson this time. They can just keep getting away with it.

Instead of Nick Fuentes becoming president, or the Arabs uniting against Israel, what will happen is that Israel will win every military engagement, it will grow its Jewish population, it will continue using American money to bribe the Egyptians and Saudis into submission, and Zionism will work out just fine. That is until the Haredi become such a large population that Netanyahu is replaced with someone as crazy as Ben Gvir or Smotrich, but who also believes that gays should be thrown off rooftops. That is the point where things get interesting.

Here’s a prediction for you: by 2040, Israel will have stricter laws against homosexuality than Saudi Arabia. It’s a very spicy prediction, and defies all common opinion, but I think there’s a chance that I am right. In 15 years I’m not sure anyone will remember that I made this prediction, and maybe it has already been made somewhere else. It’s also possible that, in 15 years, there will be a more handsome, well-spoken, populist version of DLA who overshadows me and people forget all about me. That’s the problem with being a fringe wacko on the internet: there’s no reward for being right, other than smug self-satisfaction.

hol’ up: numbers time

This section didn’t make it into the audio version, sorry. But numbers are boring to read out anyway, so not sorry.

I need to at least try to quantify this. Here are the results in 2022:

As you can see, Netanyahu + Smotrich + Shas + UTJ got 48.38% of the vote. Now, let’s look back at 2021:

In that election, Netanyahu + Shas + UTJ + Smotrich got 42.11% of the vote. That’s a 6.27% increase for the big right-wing parties.

Now, specifically, if we look at just Shas + UTJ + Smotrich, the change in vote is from 17.92% to 24.97% in a single year. That’s a 7.05% increase, showing that the far-right literally responsible for all the success of the right-wing: Netanyahu’s coalition is flatlining.

Obviously linear projections are fake and silly, but let’s do it anyway. Assuming a 7% increase in the far-right every year from 2022 onwards, we should expect that the far right will achieve an absolute majority by 2030. Of course that’s a bit too much, even for me — I don’t really believe that will happen. But if we assume that the far right just grows by 1% per year from 2022 onwards, it will achieve an absolute majority by 2047.

That’s a bit late for my 2040 prediction, but I also predict that Likud will collapse into factions with the exit of Netanyahu. This is because Likud is held together by Netanyahu, and contains a far-right faction loyal to him personally, and a moderate faction.

If I am correct, and Likud splits down the middle, then let’s assume half of Likud’s vote share goes to the far-right (11.7% in 2022). Our starting point for 2022 is now 36.68%, so a 1% increase per year means that the Israeli far-right will take absolute power by 2035.

The median year (of 2035 and 2047) is 2041, so my prophetic genius is once again proven.

What about the Saudis?

You might think, “Saudi Arabia is not a democracy; there’s no way for us to tell when they will go gay.” That’s where you’re wrong bucko: we have polling data.

source

In 2017, only 9% of Saudis wanted a “moderate, tolerant, modern” country. In 2023, the number was 21%. That’s a 12% increase in 6 years, or a 2% increase per year. At this rate, an absolute majority will be moderate, tolerant, modern Muslims by 2038. I am once again proven absolutely right and no one can question my logic here.

I’m kidding! Gosh, you guys are so harsh.

Look, I’m only half kidding, as I am always half kidding. I am the court jester who tells the truth in a series of riddles and jokes. Obviously 2040 is a very ambitious date for Israel to become more conservative than Saudi Arabia. But I am saying it is possibly possible, not certain. At least directionally, that’s where we are heading, and we are heading there very fast.

Saudi Arabia is currently stuck in the year 1930. That means, in 20 years, they’ll be considering decriminalizing homosexuality. Israel is running in reverse, at the same speed.

My job isn’t to make the most conservative predictions — this is not Deep Conservative Analysis. My job is to make you think by providing data and allowing you to see the world from a different perspective. I like shocking you with outlandish claims, which, upon closer inspection, aren’t so outlandish after all.

this is the point where the audio file syncs up with the text again:

When the Israeli parliament passes a law similar to Russia, outlawing “gay propaganda,” and shuts down the pride parade in Tel Aviv, and the Saudi Arabian kingdom allows the first openly gay club to be established in Riyadh, I will be very smug and self-satisfied, but I don’t think anyone will remember I existed.

But hopefully there will be Deep Left Acolytes who are very handsome and well-spoken, with a face for TikTok, who will carry the torch forward, and say, “SEE, WE TOLD YOU SO, YOU DIDN’T LISTEN!” And the crowd will reward them with much adulation for their prophetic vision. And I will watch silently, a single-tear falling from my cheek, like Master Splinter watching his ninja turtles fighting crime.

But seriously, at this point, I see no brakes on the Zionism train from the outside. There is no force in the world willing or able to stop Israel from gobbling up the West Bank and ending the Palestinian question once and for all.

Where you will begin to see problems is from the *inside*, when Israeli politics become so crazy that even Arabs are like,

“woah, guys, that’s kind of extreme. Gays off rooftops? That’s so 2015 -- it’s 2040 now.”

The problem for Zionism is that the world at large, including the “international conservative movement,” is very gay. Scott Bessent is the new normal. We’re not going back.

Israel is the only country in the world where the right-wing is turning against homosexuality. This might sound pedantic, but I think it’s symbolic of a larger trend. I’m not saying that Israel will, at some point, become incompatible with western civilization, but with all civilization in general.

This problem could have been prevented if they defunded the Haredi schools and forced them into the IDF back when the population was smaller. But I think a point of no return has already been passed. Netanyahu can’t survive without their support; the Israeli left is dead. So things will continue in this way, until the cliff is reached.

Anyway, onto some other topics. I’ve decided that instead of spamming you all with a ton of articles / emails, I’m going to append more bonus content at the end of each piece. Consider this the chocolate sundae you get after eating your steak and potatoes.

Here’s two more articles I read today, with some off-the-chain commentary from yours truly.

Most Churches Aren’t Growing — What We Can Learn from Those That Are