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Republicans have always supported high-skill immigration. Trump is not moving to the left on immigration — before Trump, many Republicans were supporting all immigration. Saying Trump pushed left on LGBT, abortion is fair, but Trump has never really cared about these. The gay debate ended by force from the Supreme Court. The same thing was true in the 60s. Nixon couldn’t do much about assimilation because the court ordered it, so he accepted it (for some reason the e-right thinks he didn’t). As far as abortion goes, Trump already did what he set out to do on abortion. He got Roe repealed. He’s always refrained from answering what he would do in response to a national abortion ban. “I wouldn’t need to veto anything because that would never get passed” and such and such.

We’ll see what happens with the curry visas. I’m not a fan, I am the STEMcel who will be hurt by such a thing. It’s difficult to say — Trump doesn’t exactly care about being honest on campaign. Openly calling for mass deportation, bringing up “bad genes” on public TV, and selecting a vice president who follows race scientists and fascists on Twitter is actually better than the rhetoric from 2016, it just felt more jarring in 2016.

Trump does much more pandering to the religious right than he did in 2016. Also, Jews have always been in conservative circles. Neoconservatism is more Jewish than Western Marxism — an incredible feat. The proliferation of Indians and “Insane Clown Party” figures under Trump’s watch is concerning. And you are correct that this has attracted some minorities.

I am still confident that Mexicans won’t swing right ever, but I’ll talk about this in my own post analyzing the exit polls. Mexicans are probably swinging right because A) ICP shenanigans, B) getting fed up with the afrolatry of the DNC. But Hispanics are bound to eventually shift left as they assimilate.

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1. "Trump is just returning to Romney, this isn't a move to the left" -- it's a defeat of the hopes and dreams of white nationalists who supported Trump in 2016. It's a vain exhaustion and final defeat of ethnonationalist energies. In 2015, you could say "national populism has never been tried." Well, it has been tried, and it failed to reduce or reverse non-white immigration.

2. "Trump never cared about social conservatism" -- I agree, he is a reality TV show host, not a pastor, but he was able to fool a lot of people who are now marginalized within the party. Remember Steve Bannon's endorsement of Roy Moore? I know this is ancient history to you, but that's never happening again. This is meaningful.

3. Nixon could have easily stopped enforcing Civil Rights law. He supported it and pretended to be disgruntled about it to defeat Wallace.

4. Steve Bannon explicitly supported the Alt Right by name in 2016, so Vance is not an improvement at all, people just have the attention span of houseflies.

5. I will bet you fake monopoly money that Republicans will win a majority of Hispanics in a national election by 2036. Hispanics aren't assimilating to leftism, they're assimilating to the non-college educated white bloc, which is the Trump base.

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> you could say "national populism has never been tried." Well, it has been tried, and it failed to reduce or reverse non-white immigration.

Was it *really* tried? Trump was embroiled in legal battles his first term and didn’t have a loyal legislative or judicial branch or even a loyal cabinet. This time around, it’s quite different. I’m not saying to put all your chips on Trump — he can only do so much. And maybe he’ll sit around playing golf and doing nothing. Or maybe he won’t be able to silence the legal battles he’s in. Or maybe Biden will have him arrested or something, I don’t know. But presidents are mainly just foreign dignitaries and commander in chief without a legislative branch to actually enact policy.

> Steve Bannon explicitly supported the Alt Right by name in 2016, so Vance is not an improvement at all, people just have the attention span of houseflies.

Bannon is the opposite of Vance. Where Vance postures as an ordinary put-together conservative, but secretly has dissident views, Bannon talks big game about Traditionalism and Evola and Zpengler and whatnot but then behind closed doors will be talking about how based black men are the future of the Republican Party. Plus, Bannon was a cabinet member. Vance is vice president — the American people voted him in and there is a real possibility that Vance will be forced into the position of president if something were to happen to the 78 year old obese man who has had people try to kill him twice in the past 6 months, and has had hits on his back.

> I will bet you fake monopoly money that Republicans will win a majority of Hispanics in a national election by 2036. Hispanics aren't assimilating to leftism, they're assimilating to the non-college educated white bloc, which is the Trump base.

Then why are second and third gen hispanic immigrants more liberal (even when adjust for age) than their first Gen counterparts? We imagine Hispanics on the farm picking fruit, but they’re a very urban ethnic group all things considered.

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I think we are getting farther and farther from my basic point: Trump didn't make America more white. He didn't reverse or halt white demographic decline. He won't do that in 2025, or 2028. No one will ever do that. America will become 40% white and then maybe level off once we become too poor to attract immigrants. But it won't be "national populism" that halts immigration.

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White demographic decline is unfortunately due to birth rates more than immigration, which is difficult to change. But it will level off as immigrants stop having kids

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I agree it will level off at 40% if trends continue. But national populism won't be the victor or the cause of that.

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You're assuming though that most Christians think of Trump as them "taking over". I don't think they do, and I certainly don't (though I'm British so take with a pinch of salt). On the contrary, I interpret continued evangelical support for Trump (in spite of his liberal values) as a sign that evangelicalism has given up on the culture and just wants to carve out its own space. A sort of Benedict option, you could say.

The assumption being that, yes, Trump is liberal but he'll at least let us practice our religion in peace. He'll give us parental rights over our children's education, medical decisions etc. He'll ensure we don't get fired for expressing the wrong views at work. I think that's all most evangelicals want at this stage and they're happy to form political alliance with anyone who will support them in that regard.

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You're putting words in my mouth that are irrelevant to the point I'm making in this article. The point is that Trump won by pandering to the center, and this is indicative that the deep left is winning, and Christians stay losing.

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True, but any real Christian presidential candidate would never even get through a primary. The only other option is to bury your head in the sand and withdraw from politics entirely. I’d much rather live under a government that will at least leave me alone rather than a government that wants to ceaselessly infringe upon my freedoms

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If they are losing then God wants them to lose.

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I'm thinking of remarks like this one: "The Christian right tried to protest Trump in this election." Certainly there were some who did vocally protest as such online. But on the whole, white evangelicals continued to support Trump in similar numbers to previous elections.

I suspect it comes down to one's definition of 'woke'. If by woke we indicate broad social acceptance of LGBT adults then it seems that ship has largely sailed. But some define 'woke' as indicating more than that - the enforcement of progressive social values on the population by coercive measures. So I'm thinking of the pronoun police, cancel culture, HR DEI mandates and so on.

Trump might be supportive of LGBT on a personal level, but he's definitely against wokeism in this second sense. And that's the sense that most concerns social conservatives.

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I should have said "the self-conscious intellectually honest Christian right." Evangelicals are con artists and self-deluded.

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What makes evangelicals self-deluded con artists?

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@CF: Are you an evangelical? Have you ever been to a mega church?

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My theological beliefs are more traditional Anglican but I am a member of a small evangelical church. I've never been to a megachurch (we don't have many of them in the UK). Are you referring to prosperity preachers perhaps?

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Nov 8Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

You nailed it. As a conservative Christian I didn’t have and will never again have a presidential candidate that matches all of my values. Christians are fighting a rear guard action, it’s the best we can hope for at this point

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Thank you for being honest.

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Yes. By the way read Aaron Renn's most recent piece:

https://www.aaronrenn.com/p/trump-post-christian-president

I think the BoomerCons still have the idea in their heads that "this is a Christian country" (whatever that means) but as a Christian Millennial your take is about right, most of us (at least in the college-educated group) have no illusions that we're anything but an embattled minority, we just want space to operate in freedom.

I live in a very conservative area, and I also think there's a lot of support for at least trying to keep things sane around here, even if large sections of the country are lost. A teacher at the local public school was found to be spreading gay propaganda to the students, and he was fired swiftly and unceremoniously after a parental outcry. This is how it should work: go find a job in a Blue area. But you have to think that if the Eye of Soros came down upon our local school district, Biden or Kamala's DOJ could make life very difficult for us. Under Trump, not so much.

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I’m a “STEM American”. Really not looking forward to the next four years regardless of how the Trump immigration policy works out.

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This is almost entirely cope, and fundamentally misunderstands how culture wars work. Memetic ideas strive for dominance. Ideas that are good triumph over weak ideas, and eradicate them. The party that incorporates the most good ideas wins the elections, while weak ideas are liabilities. There is literally nothing wrong with the red tribe absorbing good former blue tribe opinions like:

>You are free to fuck who you want as long as it is a consenting adult

>You are free to dress how you want or call yourself what you want as long as you don't demand exclusive privileges for it

>You are free to do with your body what you want, as long as you don't hurt another life with it

>You are free to come to the country, as long as you are capable and willing to contribute to it's success

etc. etc.

What this election killed was a whole set of terrible ideas, which were all deeply blue tribe, and will be eradicated now, as a president running on these issues will never win an American election again. Examples of these are:

>The degree of your marginalisation considers your virtue. Black women should be elevated and white men should be degraded to counterbalance systemic bias

>Speech should be heavily regulated, misinformation and hate speech are mind virusses and their propagation only harms society

>Borders are an illusion, Western society has the duty to help all of those in need, and whoever comes here will be fed and given a home

>Police is the enemy of the people, and should fundamentally be defunded, additonally police contributes to the oppression of blacks and minorities while going easy on whites, and as such should be more lenient with black crime to counteract systemic bias

This is all incredibly retarded, and should rightfully die. Reform your left party with better positions next time, hell, do what the republicans did and pilfer their positions which work and are widely accepted (borders are good actually, free speech is good actually, low taxes and high pay are good, beaurocracy is bad etc. etc.), mix them with good new left wing policies and you will win next time, and the world will be better for it.

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Donald Trump is the first president to hug a trans woman. Keep whining.

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haha if those like you are the intellectual elite of the left, then I can confidently say that you will never win any election again

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We will win in 2028. Get ready!

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Those are all bad opinions.

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Nov 9Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

The Carolina Reaper of takes. Well done.

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Nov 12Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

As a leftist this made me feel much better. Thanks!

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let's gooo

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Hyperbolic at times, but overall an excellent write-up on why I didn't vote for trump! Conservatives are easily distracted and stop paying attention to policy so long as they feel like the libs are being triggered. Even though they nominally won this election, cthulhu continues to swim left.

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I thought you might like this one.

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“Smart people” have built failing cities and states nobody wants to live in despite starting with enormous societal capital built up before they took over. The last four years were really miserable for smart people. Last I talked to my incredibly smart friend they were still masking and isolating their small child.

Let’s look at what conservatives accomplished the last few years:

1) the states and polities they run have seen all of the economic and population growth. Out migration to red states continues to go further and further up the income ladder

In 2030 the sunbelt is going to be awarded another swing state worth of electoral votes at ca/ny expense.

They continued this streak despite a hostile federal government, in fact it accelerated.

2) red states continue to build housing at 4x blue state rates with the gap growing wider. A million whiny yimby posts by leftist intellectuals just can’t get a house built in ca or ny

3) the largest threat to red state governance, Hispanics, has been neutralized. While I’m skeptical of Hispanics more broadly ever voting gop reliably, it seems the right wing culture of the sun belt has managed to assimilate them enough that they are not going to end up like California anytime soon, provided the flow of immigration is shut off.

4) in red states even the cities are trending red. Miami, Tampa, and Jacksonville all went to Trump. Dallas/Fort Worth metro area went Trump. He was competitive in Houston and San Antonio. Cities broadly are rejecting leftism.

5) red states accomplished one of the longest running goals of the right, universal school vouchers. Parents can now just send their kids to religious schools or homeschool to get the instruction they want. Enrollment at such schools has exploded while publicly school enrollment has declined. We can expect more movement on this at the state and federal level.

6) we will have a strongly conservative Supreme Court for a generation. Dividends are already coming from this and there will be more.

7) immigration was better under Trump. It got really bad under Biden. The chart that saved his life pretty much shows the story. We are going to get a correction.

8) conservatives are happier individuals on just about every social metric. Leftist continue to get more and more depressed and dysfunctional at a personal level. Everyone can see it, it’s part of the vibe.

9) the right just stole a huge chunk of Silicon Valley from the left. It’s not just Elon, bezos wouldn’t even endorse Kamala and zuck praised Trump.

10) conservatives continue to have a lot more kids then leftist. And I’m talking smart people here. It seems likely that tax policy is going to be shifted to support parents more.

Elon has 11 IVF kids, that’s the future of the right. The future of the left is Cats Ladies for Kamala.

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I have addressed most of these points in my predictions for 2028 article. You're posting on the wrong article here. These things are completely irrelevant to this article, which is about Trump hugging trans women.

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Good points. I think a central premise of DLA is that he thinks the governance problem with blue states is fixable by some kind of 'put the adults in charge' initiative of the sort advocated by Matt Yglesias.. Time will tell.

It's important that attitudes to Covid restrictions in the US became so much more Right-Left coded than in basically any other country (partial exception being Canada and likely a result of proximity). Obviously, federalism facilitated that, but I wonder how much of that is down to the personal example set by DeSantis. This is a massive advantage the Right in the US has because Covid hysteria is just so ugly.

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Nov 9Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

I’ve been shopping around for some sort of bizzaro-world to live in where everything is fine. This one is pretty convincing, and a good sign for if we all survive the next four years. I still think there’s a decently high risk of Trump being so bad that none of this matters. Namely, another pandemic coming at a time where the conservative consensus is hostile to the very concept of public health.

Less probable but highly concerning, is some sort of nuclear exchange with Iran.

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I agree that the prospect of war with Iran is frightening, and will cover the possibility in tomorrow's article.

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Don't you guys think that if our old equipment can crush Russia in Ukraine and Israel can beat Iran, that if join against Iran we'll be fine?

Isn't it sort of the point of the military industrial complex to be good at this?

I think a war against Iran would be over quickly with Iran the loser.

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@travis: I agree Iran would lose, but we would also lose. Article comes out tomorrow.

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Nov 9Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

Shoot I commented too early. 😛 Excited to read it.

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I hope you will remember this comment and re- consider when nothing happens.

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Some people here are doubting your Leftist status. Not me! If anything you are “Hyper-Leftist” in the sense self-given by Georges Bataille.

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There is a curious air of seething in this article that isn’t prevalent in most of your other works.

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Projection?

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No. You seem more smug and irritated than normal.

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Ad hom, doesn't address the points.

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Is it really ad hom to say that the tone / emotional tenor of an article is smug and irritated? I don't see how

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@ImoAtama: what did I say that was incorrect? Tone-policing is very weak.

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So complain about tone policing then. Don't cry 'ad hominem' if it ain't. Get it right.

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I’m more concerned, I’m not trying to mess with you.

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> In the long run, small numbers of smart people beat large numbers of dumb people.

I read up to this point. This educated smart/uneducated dumb hubris. And yet many educated people were genuinely surprised they got electorally ganbanged by the dumb unwashed masses.

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You know what, you're right. Stupid people really do have greater predictive power. Intelligence is really holding us back as a society. Time to go lick some lead paint!

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kamala harris is educated, and she is as dumb as a post. I know many educated liberals, and their education seems much more like a credentialed indoctrination.

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You're strawmanning -- I said intelligence, not education.

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In the long long run, religious conservatives will win because they actually want to have kids.

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In the long run, genetically engineered liberals will win.

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Nov 8Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

Maybe, but that requires more assumptions. Too bad it's so far off in the future. Neither of us will know.

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None of that retarded sci fi shit is going to happen.

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"The COVID vaccine didn't happen, science isn't real, there's no such thing as cloning"

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Yeah the Covid vaccine was dog shit in a tube and basically no one gets the boosters now, even though the FDA continues to recommend them for everyone over 6 months. Science isn’t magic, dumbass.

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Abortion is more an issue for liberal white women than ‘conservatives’ (other than evangelicals) after Roe was overturned and the issue properly returned to the states. So, wring there. Does anyone read Hanania off X or Substack? Trump will only maintain his base and popularity by making break with neoliberalism and pushing the Republican Party away from warned-over Reagan-Romney economics. We’ll see what happens.

Foreign policy will be more interesting. Keeping neocons out of power and influential positions will be important. The biggest problem with Trump is that he’s closer to the Israeli Lobby than Biden, Harris, or Obama, and will likely let Israel go on the rampage. Most interestingly, Netanyahu was one of the first leaders to call him with congratulations after the election. Looks like those two will be thick as thieves. On the bright side, he might broker a truce in the Russo-Ukraine border dispute.

He will likely do very little on immigration and the third world hordes will keep on coming. We’ll see if he can at least control ‘asylum seekers’ border. He did nothing his first term except make empty promises. Maybe our great white hope will delight and surprise us thus next time around.

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After the election the Democratic Party (my party) must rethink many of its policies as it ponders its future.

To have a chance at victory Democrats should try listening to the concerns of the working class for a change. As a lifelong moderate Democrat I share their distain for many of the insane positions advocated by my party.

Democrat politicians defy biology by believing that men can actually become women and belong in women’s sports, rest rooms, locker rooms and prisons and that children should be mutilated in pursuit of the impossible.

They believe borders should be open to millions of illegals which undermines workers’ wages and the affordability of housing when we can’t house our own citizens.

They discriminate against whites, Asians and men in a vain effort to counter past discrimination against others and undermine our economy by abandoning merit selection of students and employees.

Democratic mayors allow homelessness to destroy our beautiful cities because they won't say no to destructive behavior. No you can’t camp in this city. No you can’t shit in our streets No you can’t shoot up and leave your used needles everywhere. Many of our prosecutors will not take action against shoplifting unless a $1000 of goods are stolen leading to gangs destroying retail stores. They release criminals without bond to rob and murder again.

The average voter knows this is happening and outright reject our party. Enough.

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What do you think the Republicans get wrong?

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Nov 11Liked by DeepLeftAnalysis

Deep: Abortion. I am pro choice through the first trimester. Climate change. I believe it is a threat to humanity. Vaccines. I believe they are effective against death. The Trump cult. I believe he is an idiot.

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I'm going to offer a tentative disagree on the intelligence thing. The "educated" will keep going left, sure, but that's not surprising. People who are only good at collecting credentials will of course support the side that values credentials over merit. Credentialed idiots like Dr. jill Biden filling up their agencies with incompetent buffoons is not going to deliver a long term win. These educated people can't even run California. I don't think the war for "elite human capital" is over quite yet.

So this is important for the trans hug thing!

Credentials are not the same as intelligence. This time around Trump won in no small part because he attracted the very intelligent and only marginally credentialed tech/libertarian segment (who also no doubt brought in the new gay-friendly vibe). THis is important. The gay thing has had two factions for a while: the gay rights side and the gay acceptance side.

The educated libertarians broke hard being pro-rights, but they are breaking just as hard against the efforts to force gay acceptance. Many of them do accept gays, and that's because they want to, but the moment a government or HR person tells them they have to, they will fight back hard.

Trump, I think, will mean a serious decline in forced gay acceptance through things like DEI. But he will also, as you mentioned do a lot to normalize gays stuff in a more general libertarian, live and let live, way.

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It's an empirical question. We can test intelligence.

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Jill Biden is a Doctor

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One person anecdotally is not representative of statistical norms. "per capita"

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