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John A. Johnson's avatar

Another stimulating piece, rich in ideas. "Centralization" is a fairly broad, abstract concept. There might be several different senses of "centralization" used in this post without distinguishing them clearly. In the economic arena alone, common currency and fiat currency are slightly different forms of centralized symbols of value, central banks like the Federal Reserve represent a form of centralization, and a president who dicks around with tariffs in his attempts to control the economy are all different forms of economic centralization. Also, philosophers like Hayek argue for the superiority of a complex, self-governing economic system with distributed intelligence (centralization in the sense of connectivity among all of the players in the system) over attempts by a centralized economic decision-maker like Trump who thinks that he can improve upon the market.

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Luke Burton's avatar

There are theories that tie the second law of thermodynamics into this. Pretty much everywhere we look, at whatever scale we care to or are capable of, systems evolve to maximize entropy. From what I can tell, Alfred Lotka was the first one to frame natural selection in terms of entropy. Organisms able to harvest more energy from their environment will out-compete those who cannot - the ultimate reward function. I think this hypothesis is falsifiable and has predictive power; it is one of the reasons I believe entities able to dump more terawatts into AIs will outcompete all others.Less so for the proximate but still important side-effect of the gains they realize from powerful AI, more so because it demonstrates superior energy consumption fitness; the invisible hand behind the invisible hand.

It doesn’t feel like too far of a stretch to extend this thinking to socio-political systems directly. Political and social centralization emerges naturally after a particular strategy for organizing human labor dominates the alternatives by demonstrating superior energy consumption fitness. Gains are concentrated in the hands of earlier players; they dominate the game at the expense of those who adopted the strategy much later. No strategy is perfect and niches are left behind which the winning strategy is unable to exploit. If a new strategy emerges which can exploit this vacant niche, it can evolve untroubled. In other words, the niche is more tolerant of mutations which would otherwise be quickly exterminated had they happened elsewhere.

I think we can see this at multiple levels. Democracy is a system that has grown to maturity and exploited all available niches. China is its own niche and has mutated into a more efficient energy harvesting system which now threatens the dominant players. Within democracies, political rule through consensus and norms was the dominant strategy; mutations have taken place and right-wing populism is on the rise (the “vaccine” we administered to ourselves during the 20th century having clearly worn off).

Through this lens centralization doesn’t reveal any “truths” about the system, as much as we want to believe the stories we tell ourselves. All we can really say is that it outcompeted those around it and has now reached maturity, and is therefore resilient to internal mutations but vulnerable to novel mutations from the peripheries.

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