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Dave92f1's avatar

An interesting theory, but Occam's razor says Musk simply means what he says about Mars. You're free to dislike Musk, but whatever he is, he's far more than a SW engineer and scam artist.

Tesla sells almost 5x more cars than Chrysler (now Stellantis). No other US car mfr has gotten to anywhere near that scale since Chrysler itself, founded in 1935. So they've done what nobody else was able to do for 90 years. This is more than a scam - this is serious heavy industry.

SpaceX has reduced the cost of putting payload in orbit *by a factor of 10* vs. where it was previously. Because so far nobody else can match their prices, SpaceX launches *more than 90%* of ALL mass to orbit from the entire planet - including Russia and China. They pioneered practical rocket re-use when nobody in the industry was even trying. Again, this is a lot more than salesmanship and hype.

Yes, Musk is eager to pick up money left on the table by the US government. SpaceX *saves* the USG billions in launch costs tho, and neither Tesla nor Musk lobbied for the EV rebates or the emission credit scheme that makes a lot of Tesla's profits. If you were running a car making company and billions were on the table that you qualified for, wouldn't you or anyone pick up that money? Even more so, if you really wanted to colonize Mars out of your own pocket as an act of charity, and seriously thought the *fate of the universe* depended on it, wouldn't you also be ruthless in pursuit of that goal?

Yes, Musk has a long history of overpromising and delivering late. Sometimes very late. But he also has a long history of eventually delivering on even outrageous promises. Musk's investors are keenly aware of this (both sides). SpaceX likes to say they specialize in turning the impossible into the merely very late. And the self-driving cars DO work (I have a couple of them). They still aren't 100% perfect and probably never will be, but then human drivers aren't 100% perfect either - if the self-driving car is safer than human drivers, that's good enough. And they're about at that point now.

Musk is a real industrialist who builds real companies that make things efficiently in quantity and are vastly more innovative than all of their competitors.

Is he serious about Mars? Only Musk knows for sure, but many people have made the argument that as our society reduces travel time and cost, and communications becomes cheap (it's at ~ zero now), we become a monoculture. And monocultures have all kinds of well-known vulnerabilities. The only fix short of abandoning technology (not going to happen politically) is to spread the human race apart - re-create independent isolated societies, so if something bad happens to one, others are not affected, and (both biological and social) evolution can test different survival schemes. It's not just meteor strikes - it's nuclear/bio/chemical war, ideological dead ends, the fertility crisis, etc. Mars is just the first step toward spreading intelligent life throughout the universe.

I think you've said you'd be OK with the human race dying out. Most of us don't feel that way; Musk has repeatedly said he doesn't either. Occam's razor says he means it.

-- Added: I just got around to reading your recent "in defense of human extinction". You didn't say anything there implying you'd be OK with the human race dying out (I was misled by the title); sorry.

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Richard Hanania's avatar

I hate Elon but come on. You skipped over SpaceX being responsible for the majority of all satellites currently in space, beating out all governments and other companies combined. The man is beyond detestable but that’s real.

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