Israel's Future: The Decline of Nationalism

Part 1: A minoritarian approach to nationalism

Israel is at war. Joe Biden, previously critical of Netanyahu, promises unwavering support. The geriatrics of Fox News say he doesn't go far enough. But the youth of America are not so sure. Biden is crashing in the polls. In Iraq or Afghanistan, the left focused blame on oil, imperialism, rare earth minerals, Blackwater, and corporations. But since October 7th, leftists are redirecting their zealotry against Zionism. Young Jewish Americans, who in past generations would have been Israel’s fiercest defenders, have less enthusiasm for Zionism than ever before. As white Evangelicals decline, the youth of the Trump movement are hesitant, skeptical, or even "dissident right." Even if Israel achieves military victory in Gaza, these long-term, intergenerational trends bring into question the American-Israeli alliance and Israel’s future as an identitarian state.

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THE DECLINE OF NATIONALISM

Israel is not the only state whose national identity is threatened. Demographic projections in America, Russia, Italy, and Britain indicate that the majority ethnicities of these countries will become minorities within 20, 30, or 40 years.¹ All of these countries have had their own popular anti-immigration movements. With the exception of Russia,² explicitly anti-immigrant movements in these countries have achieved electoral success with Trump, Meloni, and Brexit. Once in office, however, these parties consistently effect pro-migration policies. Despite popular opposition to immigration,³ western governments, even populist ones, have been unwilling or unable to slow down mass immigration.

This failure is explained by elite theory. Financial, military, and religious elites determine policy, regardless of opinion polls. Israel’s future, therefore, will be determined by its ability to overcome both domestic and international populism and align its identitarian mission with the interests of religious, financial, or military elites. To understand why elite theory is correct, it is instructive to learn from the failures of populism.

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TRUMP: BY THE NUMBERS

In America, Trump promised to reduce immigration. The failure of Trump’s policies can be judged by the numbers. While undocumented immigration is difficult to track, several metrics can indicate the number of people flowing across the border, both illegally and legally, in a given year: apprehensions, encounters, Green Cards, naturalizations, H1-Bs, H-2As, H2-Bs, ICE arrests, and deportations or removals.⁴

Under Trump, apprehensions reached a 12 year high in 2019, which was higher than at any point under Obama.⁵ "Encounters" under Obama were generally under 50,000 per month. Under Trump, encounters reached a 19 year high of 132,000 per month.⁶ Trump issued around as many Green Cards as Obama: one million per year.⁷ Naturalizations increased during Trump's presidency to reach their highest historical levels.⁸ H-1B visas increased under Trump.⁹ H-2A and H-2B visas, for low-skilled agricultural workers, doubled under Trump to over 200,000 from Obama’s previous average of around 100,000 per year.¹⁰

ICE under Obama achieved 298,000 arrests in 2009, but ICE under Trump was barely able to achieve half that number.¹¹ Deportations under Obama reached a peak of 432,000 in 2013, but by 2018, deportations under Trump had decreased by 22%.¹² "Interior removals" of immigrants under Trump were lower than under Obama, and "border removals" under Trump did not exceed Obama.¹³ Trump never issued visas below the average set by Obama, Bush, or even Clinton.¹⁴ Under Obama, the illegal immigrant population declined from a peak of 12.5 million in 2010, to 11.3 million in 2016, prior to Trump taking office. By the end of Trump's term, the illegal immigrant population remained essentially the same at 10.9 million.¹⁵

Due to COVID, Trump had an opportunity to discontinue visas, which reached a minimum of 697 in May of 2020. However, these exploded to almost 15,000 by September of that year.¹⁶ Trump issued immigration visas at a rate between 462,000 to 560,000 per year. This is essentially the same as the range under Obama, which from 2009 to 2015 ranged from 467,000 to 531,000. The 560,000 visas issued by Trump in 2017 was the second highest total of all time.¹⁷

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TRUMP: IN HIS OWN WORDS

Trump supporters claim that he intended to reduce immigration, but was not able to overcome the “deep state.”¹⁸ They claim that while Trump was unable to change policy, his rhetoric changed the political culture. This rhetorical shift, they argue, will make it possible for future populists to enact real reform. Trump, in his own words, contradicts this thesis:

In 2018, “We want them to come into our country very much. We need people to help us, with all of these companies that are coming in. We’ve never had anything like this.”¹⁹

In February 2019: “I need people coming in because we need people to run the factories and plants and companies that are moving back in, [..] We need people [..in] the largest numbers ever.”²⁰

In May 2019: "we’re not able to give preference to a doctor, a researcher, a student who graduated number one in his class from the finest colleges in the world [..].  We want to keep them here. [..] We discriminate against genius. We discriminate against brilliance. [..] We want these exceptional students and workers to stay, and flourish, and thrive in America. [..] This will increase the diversity of immigration flows into our country. [..] Like Canada and so many other modern countries, we create an easy-to-navigate points-based selection system. You will get more points for being a younger worker, meaning you will contribute more to our social safety net. [..] When we swear in new citizens, we do more than give them a permit; we give them a history, a heritage, a home, and a future of limitless possibilities and potential. [..] [We] pride ourselves on [..] our unique ability to instill the spirit of America into any human heart, into any human being."²¹

Trump sought a skills-based migration policy. Instead of immigration consisting mostly of an easily controlled underclass of farm workers, dependent on government welfare, Trump demanded that the American middle class be displaced, and put in direct competition with a foreign intellectual elite. Trump's promotion of foreign students contributed to the displacement of native-born Americans in key positions in administration, technology, and finance.²²

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THE FAILURE OF EUROPEAN NATIONALISTS: RUSSIA

Trump is not alone in failing to deliver nationalist promises. Putin, often portrayed as an ultra-nationalist in the west, is overseeing the demographic transformation of Russia at a similar rate to that of western European countries.²³ The majority ethnicity, referred to as Russkiye, has low levels of fertility, similar to western Europe.

2.1 children per woman is the minimum number needed for the replacement of a population. In the case of Russia, Russkiye have a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.442 per woman. Russia is about 80% Russkiye,²⁴ meaning there are about 115 million Russkiye. If 57.94% of Russians are under age 45, and 54% of Russians are women, then there are approximately 36 million Russkiye women who will have 1.442 children each during their lifetime. This will result in the birth of 28 million Russian females, or a decline of 22% per generation.

Not counting Ukrainian immigrants, who are largely Russian speaking, Russia accepted 198,395 migrants in 2019. This represents 0.17% of Russia’s population. In the same year, America accepted 1 million migrants, which is 0.3% of America’s population. On this basis alone, Russia is experiencing half of the mass immigration, proportionately, that America does. The biggest sources of migration to Russia were from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, and Uzbekistan.²⁵

Not only is Russia experiencing migration from without, but also “internal migration,” where minority ethnicities expand from their traditional territories into Russia’s more developed urban areas. Under the Soviet Union, citizens could not freely move from one city to another without government permission. However, under Putin, cities like Volgograd are experiencing mass “internal migration” from southern Republics like Dagestan.

According to a proposal paper by the Center for Strategic Research:

"Migration remains largely uncontrolled, despite the seemingly active work of the federal migration authorities. This circumstance results in the unregistered employment of a sizable portion of migrants, deforms the Russian labour market and provokes widespread exploitation of migrants, up to and including forced and slave labour and human trafficking. Russian society is concerned about the obvious absence of an effective immigration control mechanism, which turns migration into a burning problem on the domestic political agenda and increases radical nationalist sentiments."²⁶

While most Americans are not fleeing their country, up to one million Russians have left since the Ukraine War, many of whom tend to be younger, liberal, secular, and more upwardly mobile.²⁷ Therefore, the decline of the Russkiye cannot be only attributed to mass immigration, but also mass emigration. All of these factors contribute to a projection that by 2040, Russia may lose its ethnic majority.²⁸

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THE FAILURE OF EUROPEAN NATIONALISTS: MELONI AND BREXIT

Critics of Putin might accuse him of being “un-democratic,” and, as a result, unresponsive to the demographic decline of his people. However, democratically elected leaders do not fare much better. In Italy, "More than 70 percent of Italians believe that Meloni has done less than she had promised on immigration, and 66 percent say the government is not capable of handling the issue."²⁹ In a striking reversal, she declared, “Italy and Europe need immigration” (“L'Italia e l'Europa hanno bisogno di immigrazione”):

Meloni’s government issued a statement in 2023 demanding the introduction of 833,000 migrants to compensate for Italy’s aging and declining workforce.³⁰ This was not mere rhetoric, but had immediate impacts. In 2023, “The number of people arriving by boat after crossing the Mediterranean has more than doubled [..] to 106,000 [..], compared to 53,000 over the same period [in 2022].” The mayor of Lampedusa, the “Ellis Island” of Italy, asks, “Where did the Prime Minister Meloni [go] who was saying ‘naval blockade’ [..]? [..] I hoped [..] now that we finally have a right-wing government the situation would change [..] but the right is getting worse than the left.”³¹

Meloni is a fresh face to Italian politics, and the excuse could be made that she has not yet had time to fully wrangle the state behind her true mission. But in the case of Brexit, immigration has only increased in the last seven years. The Brexit vote in 2016 was largely perceived as a referendum on immigration. However, since Brexit, new arrivals into Britain have more than doubled from around 600,000 to almost 1.2 million.³² Since its rejection of the EU, immigration to Britain is less European, more Middle Eastern, and more African in origin. The Brexit vote resulted in the rejection of Polish plumbers in favor of non-European immigration.

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NATIONALISM’S BIRTH AND DEATH IN THE ADMINISTRATIVE STATE

The incentive structures which gave rise to identitarian states are falling apart. To understand why these foundations are eroding, we must understand the conditions which originally built them up.

Ethnic tribes or nations have always existed in some form, but before the modernization of Europe, they did not ideologically monopolize the state legitimacy. After the Black Plague and the fall of Constantinople, the increase in the value of labor gave rise to the Renaissance, colonialism, capitalism, Reformation, Enlightenment, and industrialism. These revolutions undermined traditional ecclesiastic and aristocratic authority. This led to Rousseau's popular, secular, ethnic nationalism, which justified itself as representing “the People,” rather than God, the King, or the nobility.

Prior to these revolutions, most governments were not based on an ethno-nationalist foundation. Instead, ancient and pre-modern states were universally characterized by an imperialist, theocratic, or aristocratic ethos. Ancient Greece and Rome were based on the enslavement of "barbarians" and the native population, known as Helots, who were subjugated by conquest and genocide. The ancient Greeks did not think of their slaves as being a part of their nation, or having a right to sovereignty, or a right to exist, or any national rights at all.

The Greeks and Romans were ethnocentric, imperialistic supremacists, who believed their nation was superior to others. Unlike modern nationalists, they did not believe in "nationalism for all peoples," popular sovereignty, or ethnic self-determination. Although the ancient Greeks and Romans were open to alliances with foreigners for the purposes of “divide and conquer,” they would not recognize the morality of a “pro-Palestinian” on the basis of “ideologically consistent nationalism.” That sort of universal morality was introduced later by Christianization.

Modern nationalists lie about this uncomfortable ancient truth in order to justify nationalism as an eternal biological or genetically determined ideology — that is, they attempt to portray modern nationalism as following "natural law." But the claim that modern nationalism is an ancient ideology does not hold up to scrutiny. 

In pre-modern, agricultural economies, the state has less of a need for "nationalism." Peasant Revolts, like that of John Ball in 1381, were easily put down, and ancient regimes had less need for popular support, since they could rely on either the church or the nobility. Most people were poor manual laborers with no education in reading or writing, and their petty ethnic identity was not the animating principle behind the policy of the state.

The rise in the value of labor, which first brought Europe out of feudalism and made nationalism possible, finally peaked during the industrial boom of the early 20th century. It is no coincidence then that this was also the height of nationalist influence on state ideology. Since 1973 however, real wages have stagnated and crashed, leading to increased wealth disparities between rich and poor. For the first time in centuries, western nations are facing a future where children will grow up to be poorer than their parents, and native populations will become a minority.

In a post-industrial economy, the decline in the value of mass labor results in a decline in elite or administrative support for nationalism. Without this elite support, nationalist states will wither away.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has warned that, since antiquity, no Jewish state has lasted more than 80 years. We may look back on the current “Israeli interregnum” as a historical aberration, a curiosity, but not an "eternal type." Against titanic forces, if Israel is to survive as an identitarian state, it must win the present military conflict, but more importantly, it must utilize elite support to overcome demographic challenges and repair or replace the American-Israeli alliance.

1. "When Britain becomes “majority minority”": David Coleman November 17, 2010: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/essays/54708/when-britain-becomes-majority-minority

2. "Migrants Welcome: Is Russia Trying To Solve Its Demographic Crisis By Attracting Foreigners?" KRISTYNA FOLTYNOVA, JUNE 19, 2020: https://www.rferl.org/a/migrants-welcome-is-russia-trying-to-solve-its-demographic-crisis-by-attracting-foreigners-/30677952.html

3. "The Global Immigration Backlash." David Leonhardt, July 11, 2023: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/briefing/global-migration.html

4. The following numbers do not include restrictions due to COVID following February 2020. Numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand for ease of comprehension.

5. "Southern Border Apprehensions at All-Time High," Katharina Buchholz, Jan 9, 2023: https://www.statista.com/chart/20326/mexicans-non-mexcians-apprehended-at-southern-us-border/

6. "Monthly encounters with migrants at U.S.-Mexico border remain near record highs," John Gramlich, JANUARY 13, 2023: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/01/13/monthly-encounters-with-migrants-at-u-s-mexico-border-remain-near-record-highs/

7. Figure 1. Number of Green Cards Issued, FY 2009-19. "The “Trump Effect” on Legal Immigration Levels: More Perception than Reality?" NOVEMBER 20, 2020 By Muzaffar Chishti and Jessica Bolter: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-effect-immigration-reality

8. Figure 2. Total Naturalizations, FY 2009-19. "The “Trump Effect” on Legal Immigration Levels: More Perception than Reality?" NOVEMBER 20, 2020 By Muzaffar Chishti and Jessica Bolter: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-effect-immigration-reality

9. Figure 5. USCIS Approvals of Petitions for H-1B Workers, FY 2009-19. "The “Trump Effect” on Legal Immigration Levels: More Perception than Reality?" NOVEMBER 20, 2020 By Muzaffar Chishti and Jessica Bolter: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-effect-immigration-reality

10. Figure 6. Visas Approved for Seasonal Workers, FY 2009-20. "The “Trump Effect” on Legal Immigration Levels: More Perception than Reality?" NOVEMBER 20, 2020 By Muzaffar Chishti and Jessica Bolter: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/trump-effect-immigration-reality

11. Figure 2. “How border apprehensions, ICE arrests and deportations have changed under Trump.” MARCH 2, 2020, JOHN GRAMLICH: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/03/02/how-border-apprehensions-ice-arrests-and-deportations-have-changed-under-trump/

12. Figure 3. “How border apprehensions, ICE arrests and deportations have changed under Trump.” MARCH 2, 2020, JOHN GRAMLICH: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/03/02/how-border-apprehensions-ice-arrests-and-deportations-have-changed-under-trump/

13. Figure 3. "President Trump Reduced Legal Immigration. He Did Not Reduce Illegal Immigration." JANUARY 20, 2021, Alex Nowrasteh: https://www.cato.org/blog/president-trump-reduced-legal-immigration-he-did-not-reduce-illegal-immigration

14. Figure 2. "President Trump Reduced Legal Immigration. He Did Not Reduce Illegal Immigration." JANUARY 20, 2021, Alex Nowrasteh: https://www.cato.org/blog/president-trump-reduced-legal-immigration-he-did-not-reduce-illegal-immigration

15. Figure 4. "President Trump Reduced Legal Immigration. He Did Not Reduce Illegal Immigration." JANUARY 20, 2021, Alex Nowrasteh: https://www.cato.org/blog/president-trump-reduced-legal-immigration-he-did-not-reduce-illegal-immigration

16. Figure 1. "No Year Has Seen Legal Immigration Cut Like the 2nd Half of FY 2020." OCTOBER 13, 2020, By David J. Bier: https://www.cato.org/blog/no-year-has-seen-legal-immigration-cut-2nd-half-fy-2020

17. Table 1. "No Year Has Seen Legal Immigration Cut Like the 2nd Half of FY 2020." OCTOBER 13, 2020, By David J. Bier: https://www.cato.org/blog/no-year-has-seen-legal-immigration-cut-2nd-half-fy-2020

18. Such assertions support the argument that nationalism is structurally or institutionally disincentivized on a deep, global level. The decline of nationalism is not “accidental,” but it is caused by a more fundamental reordering of the world.

19. White Americans are only 30-50% of Ivy league students. Ethnic/Racial Breakdown of the Ivy League. "The Demographics of the Ivy League." July 9, 2023, Cheyenne Vowell: https://blog.collegevine.com/the-demographics-of-the-ivy-league]

20. "Remarks by President Trump on Modernizing Our Immigration System for a Stronger America." Issued on: May 16, 2019. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-modernizing-immigration-system-stronger-america/

21. "Remarks by President Trump on the Illegal Immigration Crisis and Border Security." Issued on: November 1, 2018: https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-illegal-immigration-crisis-border-security/

22. "'We need people': Donald Trump says he wants to see more legal immigration in U.S." February 6, 2019. Michael Collins Alan Gomez: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/06/immigration-trump-says-he-wants-more-legal-migrants-u-s/2792732002/

23. Russia is projected to be 30% non-Christian by 2035. "Russia Will Be One-Third Muslim in 15 Years, Chief Mufti Predicts." March 5, 2019: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/russia-will-be-one-third-muslim-in-15-years-chief-mufti-predicts-a64706

24. "People of Russia." 2023: https://www.advantour.com/russia/population.htm

25. "Migrants Welcome: Is Russia Trying To Solve Its Demographic Crisis By Attracting Foreigners?" KRISTYNA FOLTYNOVA, JUNE 19, 2020: https://www.rferl.org/a/migrants-welcome-is-russia-trying-to-solve-its-demographic-crisis-by-attracting-foreigners-/30677952.html

26. "PROPOSALS FOR RUSSIA’S MIGRATION STRATEGY THROUGH 2035." IRINA IVAKHNYUK, September 2017. https://www.globalmigrationpolicy.org/articles/governance/Proposals%20Russia%20Migration%20Strategy%202035%20I%20Ivakhnyuk%20CSR%202017.pdf

27. "Russia’s top talent fleeing to other countries." Michael Laff, Aug 3, 2023: https://share.america.gov/russias-top-talent-fleeing-to-other-countries/

28. "Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years." October 31, 2009: https://www.voanews.com/a/a-13-2006-02-28-voa77/399222.html

29. "Giorgia Meloni Gets a Reality Check on Immigration." OCTOBER 24, 2023, Michele Barbero: https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/24/italy-immigration-right-wing-meloni-migrant-crisis/

30. "Comunicato stampa del Consiglio dei Ministri n. 42." July 6, 2023: https://www.governo.it/it/articolo/comunicato-stampa-del-consiglio-dei-ministri-n-42/23077

31. "How Italy’s far-right leader learned to stop worrying and love migration." JACOPO BARIGAZZI, AUGUST 30, 2023: https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-far-right-leader-giorgia-meloni-migration/

32. "Who is allowed to come to live in the UK?" Tom Edgington & Tamara Kovacevic, 25 May: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48785695