Israel's Future: The Dechurching of America

Part 2: American demography and its impact on Israel.

There are five main Israeli demographic groups:

1. Non-Jewish Israelis: 25%

2. Haredim: "Orthodox," 13%

3. Datim / Masoratim: "Conservative," 10%.

4. Hilonim: Hiloni means "worldly" or "Non-observant," 42%.

5. Leftist Hilonim: a subset of Hilonim, 7%.¹

Additionally, there are three American demographic groups which are significant for Israel:

1. Jewish American democrats: 71% of American Jews.²

2. American Haredim: 10% of American Jews.

3. American white evangelicals: 14% of Americans.³

Out of these 8 groups, there are 3 major trends which will significant affect the future of Israel:

1. The first demographic trend is the loss of Israel's Jewish majority due to the high fertility of non-Jewish Israeli citizens. Without significant ethnic displacement, Israel's Jewish majority will become a minority, no matter how many wars it wins. Liberal Israelis, liberal Americans, and the threat of international economic sanctions would oppose this displacement.

2. The second demographic trend is Haredi fertility. Even if the non-Jewish population voluntarily left, the Haredi population would form Israel's new majority. This would threaten Israel's relationship with the international LGBTQ community and cause political complications.

3. The third demographic trend is the "dechurching" of American white evangelical men. Dechurching is the phenomenon, not limited to evangelicals, of mass religious disengagement of men ages 18-29, leading to a decline in support for Israel.

The Decline of White Evangelicals

White Evangelicals are the traditional supporters of Israel, who make up a significant share of the American special forces and Republican voter base. The total percentage of white Christians has declined from 80% in 1976, to 66% in 1996, to under 44% in 2021.⁴

White Evangelicals are an even smaller share, totaling 14% of the country. White Evangelicals 80% of them have positive views of Israel, as opposed to Mainline Protestants (63%), Catholics (58%), Black Protestants (43%), or atheist/agnostics (42%).⁵ Black Protestant antagonism toward Israel may have to do with Black reticence to look at any Caucasian group as “the chosen people.” This may have to do with the fact that 23% of blacks believe it is "unacceptable" for Jesus to be depicted as a white man.⁶

While 22% of Americans over age 65 are white evangelicals, only 7% of Americans 18-29 (a key military demographic) are white evangelicals. Meanwhile, 36% of 18-29 year olds are religiously unaffiliated, which is the least supportive white demographic for Israel. White Evangelicals are the oldest religious group, with a median age of 56, as compared with the American average of 47, and the unaffiliated average of 38. Only 10% of white evangelicals had a masters or doctorate, which is less than black protestants, at 11%. They are the least educated out of all white-majority religious groups.⁷

Self identification as religiously unaffiliated correlated with respondents who were Asian or multi-racial (34% for both). Therefore, as mass immigration and interracial relationships may hasten declining support for Israel.⁸

The white Evangelical decline from 22% to 7% (from the 65+ group to ages 18-29) is the most extreme of any religious group in America. At the same time, other white religious groups are also shrinking as a percentage of the total American population. Mainline protestants have shrunk from 20% to 12%, and white Catholics have shrunk from 15% to 8% over the same period. The total percentage of white Christians is only 27% of Americans age 18-29, as opposed to 57% of Americans over 65.⁹

Within the Republican party, the number of unaffiliated increased from 9% to 13% between 2006 and 2020, while in the Democrat party, it increased from 13% to 23%.¹⁰

Putting religion aside, younger and highly educated Americans have a vastly different opinion on Israel than Americans over age 65. This is especially true for Jewish Americans. American liberals are undergoing intense polarization toward the left. Young Jewish Americans are becoming radicalized towards a pro-Palestinian position. While 69% of Americans over age 65 have a favorable opinion on Israel, only 41% of Americans age 18-29 share that opinion. With an average decline of support of 9% per generation, we should expect that in 10 years, only 32% of young Americans will support Israel, with 65% opposed.¹¹ This represents Gen Alpha, ages 8-17. These are the young consumers of social media who represent the future of America.

Educated Americans also tend to be more critical of Israel. When asked if "Biden is favoring the Israelis or Palestinians too much," 12% of postgrads said "favoring the Israelis," versus only 7% of those with only highschool or some college education.¹²

Summary

1. The modern evangelical movement began in the 1940s, peaked in the 1970s, and now is in terminal decline.

   1. The decline of Evangelicals is due to the fact that Evangelicals are an aging population.

   2. The children of Evangelicals, especially young men ages 18-29, are leaving the church at an astounding rate.

2. Secularism and the growth of religious non-affiliation decreases support for Israel.

3. Increasing college education, especially masters and doctorate degrees, decreases support for Israel.

4. Increasing immigration from non-white countries, especially Catholic or non-Christian countries, decreases support for Israel.

5. Increasing interracial relationships, and multi-racial births, decreases support for Israel.

In part three, we will turn inward towards Israel’s demographic trends, and what they mean for its future.

1. The overall number of Hilonim is 49%, and the leftist voters are 7%. "Non-leftist" Hilonim are approximate and assumes that all voters for left-wing parties such as the Israeli communist party are necessarily also leftist, although some may be Reform. Reform represent only 2% of the Israeli population.

2. [https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/u-s-jews-political-views/]

3. [https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/]

4. [https://www.npr.org/2021/07/08/1014047885/americas-white-christian-plurality-has-stopped-shrinking-a-new-study-finds]

5. [https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/07/11/american-views-of-israel/]

6. [https://today.yougov.com/society/articles/33508-what-race-can-jesus-and-santa-be]

7. [https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/

8. [https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/]

9. https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/

10. https://www.prri.org/research/2020-census-of-american-religion/

11. [https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/07/11/american-views-of-israel/]

12. [https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/07/11/american-views-of-israel/]