After Apocalypse: Four Visions of the Next Century
A new world.
Persia in 500 BC had many similarities to modern America. Cyrus the Great was a hero of the Jews. Persia itself was governed as a “United Nations,” under the rubric of “nationalism for all peoples.” Alexander smashed this to pieces, and the Seleucid Greeks ruled over Iran, Syria, and Palestine, building statues of Zeus in Jerusalem.
COVID showed that a single laboratory with an understanding of genetics can shut down the global economy. There is an asymmetrical difference between offense and defense in biological warfare. It is easy to create diseases, and almost impossible to stop them in time with vaccines or lockdowns.
Lockdowns, we now know, themselves cause incredible psychological damage. Social isolation, deprivation of sunshine and exercise, immobility and stagnation — these have deep effects. Imprisonment in the home with an internet connection is not quite as bad as a sensory deprivation chamber or solitary confinement, but these effects exist on a spectrum. It causes morphological damage to the brain, the physical organ shrivels up and atrophies like a muscle without training. How can soldiers fight if they are shadows of their former selves?
The attempt to lockdown a population in order to resist biological warfare is an intensification of domestication, which eliminates the spirit necessary for a military campaign.
The Black Plague killed 3/10 of Europeans, while COVID killed 3/10,000 Europeans. If COVID were 1,000 times more dangerous, we could also expect it to eliminate 74% of the global African population.
Globally, if the Black Plague doesn’t come until 2100, it would hit a population of 10.32 billion. If the death rate was 30%, the resulting population would be 7.2 billion, less than the 8 billion we presently have. But if it was like COVID, then it would affect the continents differently.
Asia’s population would be 3.276 billion; Africa’s population would be 1.0244 billion.
Zooming in on America, assume that America in 2100 will have a population of 366 million, with 183 million Mestizo/mixed race, 51 million black, 73 million white, and 59 million Asian. Projecting COVID x1000 statistics on these populations, the result would be: 110 million Mestizo/mixed race, 13 million black, 51 million white, and 41 million Asian.
As a result, the black population would drop from 14% to 6%, while the "Eurasian" (combined white-Asian percentage) would rise from 36% to 43%. This is assuming that COVIDx1000 is no more ethnically targeted than COVID, and no worse than the Black Plague, but these assumptions may not be reasonable. It is entirely possible that a genetically engineered virus (or several hundred independently developed variants) could be ethnically targeted, and be much worse than the Black Plague.
The diseases which were introduced to the Americans by Europeans are estimated to have wiped out 90% of the population. If such diseases revisit the earth, we should be surprised if 1 billion people survive.
Furthermore, agriculture in 1500 was a much more decentralized technology than present-day agriculture. Now, agriculture is heavily reliant on fertilizer, which is mass produced in large industrial facilities. If 90% of the earth’s population was eliminated, who would make the fertilizer? Where? How would it be transported from one part of the world to another?
Chinese Collapse
Between 156 AD and 300 AD, China experienced a 150 year population decline from 65 million to 35 million, or a decline of 46%.
Between 755 and 900, the decline was from 90 million to 39 million, a decline of 57%.
Between 1200 and 1290, there was a decline from 140 million to 75 million, a decline of 46%.
Between 1351 and 1393, China was hit by the Black Plague, and declined from 120 million to 65 million, a decline of 46%.
From 1850 to 1864, China lost 30 million people in the Taiping Rebellion, about 7% of its total population. This is actually relatively small compared to China’s historical population collapses. In the last 2000 years, China has experienced four major population collapses around 156 AD, 755 AD, 1200 AD, and 1351 AD. On average, these collapses hit every 500 years, so China is due for one pretty soon. In 2103, it will have been 752 years since the last collapse, which is the longest period in China’s history that it has gone without a population collapse over 46%.
Assume that China’s population is due to collapse by 46% in 2103. For simplicity’s sake, imagine that the economic interconnectedness of Asia and dependence on China will result in a ripple effect which will result in all of Asia decreasing in population by 46%. Such results could also be obtained if things were even worse in China, but less bad in the rest of Asia: for example, if China collapsed by 90%, but the rest of Asia was relatively unaffected.
Climate Collapse
If the average global temperatures increase by 7 degrees Fahrenheit in 2104, then the average temperature at the equator will rise from 88 degrees to 95 degrees. This will result in massive desertification, forcing humans in the global south to migrate north.
Much of Oceania will be made inhospitable (the hot deserts of Australia) or forced underwater (Indonesia). Latin America will lose its rainforest and resemble the Sahel. Africa will be further devastated with the expansion of the Sahara into the Congo, and the Namibian desert into South Africa. Finally, India will resemble the arid regions of Pakistan, and China's Gobi desert will expand.
Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia will remain habitable, while Antarctica will resemble much of present-day Canada and Scandinavia.
The result of COVID2101, African Collapse (2102), Chinese Collapse (2103), and Climate Collapse (2104) will be as follows:
For reference, historical hunter-gatherer populations of humans in the year 10k BC are included. At that time, Europe had 23% of global population, and Asia had 44%.
In 1900, when Europe was in its most historically dominant period, it had less than 18% of global population, and Asia had over 64%. In 2024, Europe shrank to 8% of global population.
By combining Europe and America into Euro-America, we can see how dramatic these events could be.
Each of these years (2101, 2102, 2103, 2104) represent points on a spectrum of likelihood. It is very likely that Africa experiences much worse consequences from COVID*1000 than the rest of the world. This will result in the most likely scenario, which is 2101: a diminished Africa, and Asian and Euro-America having a similar balance of power as they do today.
The next scenario is 2102: a drastically reduced Africa as a result of the collapse of infrastructure, agriculture, and modern medicine, even beyond the effects of COVID1000. In this scenario, Africa would have a surviving population of 101 million, which is in line with its historical pre-colonial population.
The third scenario is 2103: a general Chinese collapse of about 46% of its population, as China experienced four times in the last 2000 years. This would essentially return the world to the balance of power as it was in 1900: 23% Euro-American, 60% Asian.
The fourth scenario is 2104: an environmental collapse of the global south, leading to mass migration toward Canada, Russia, and Scandinavia.
You should also consider wet-bulb events. Nearly 100% mortality. Would depopulate most of SEA and the tropical regions of Africa and Latin America, well before any major desertification happens. When that happens only HVAC can save you, but many of this places dont even have reliable electrical grids.
Predictions of desertification have been prone to exaggeration without payoff, like sea level rise. My guess is that the Middle East continues to dry, but much of the tropics remain humid.