The Deep State Conspiracy Against Biden
Why the deep state chose Trump.
In 2020, Biden was the perfect candidate against Trump; old, white, normal, straight, one of the most “working-class” Democrats in the party. Pennsylvania and Delaware sit perfectly on the edge of Appalachia; not too northern, not too southern, not too “coastal elite,” not too rural. Scranton, Pennsylvania is one of the most American cities — it typifies the most boring and lovable parts of America in The Office (2005).
Biden is the ultimate centrist, and a clear winner in a normal country. His instinctive centrism is what helped him win election after election since he was 29 years old, in 1972. But in 2024, this centrism is working against him.
polarization.
In Ukraine, there are two extreme options:
A full scale war against Putin, which would require at least $850 billion dollars a year. The GWOT (global war on terror) cost about $400B per year, for a total of $8 trillion over 20 years. Currently, NATO is spending maybe 13% of what it was spending during the GWOT. NATO needs to increase its spending by a factor of 20x if it hopes to defeat Putin.
On the other hand, NATO could decide that it’s not worth it, and a deal could be struck with Putin. This would involve surrendering Ukraine to Russia, since without the promise of NATO or EU integration, the pro-western forces within Ukraine would disintegrate — similar to the condition of Hungary in 1957.
Biden, like his European counterparts, has not been willing to take either of these paths, instead opting for “the judgement of Solomon,” cutting the baby in half. (1 Kings 3:16–28)
There are two distinct camps within the “deep state.” One of these wishes to take a hard line on Russia, while the other seeks reconciliation (represented publicly by Scott Ritter, General Flynn, Douglas Macgregor, David Sacks, and RFK Jr). Biden has failed to hold the line against Russia, while at the same time, he is rejected by the pro-Russian wing, which is gaining ground in Silicon Valley.
Similarly, in Gaza, Biden has failed to satisfy liberal internationalists, like George Soros, who want to see Israel humbled and restrained, and also failed to satisfy hardcore Zionists, like Miriam Adelson. Biden’s centrism leaves him with no allies.
The term “deep state” in the broad sense includes billionaires, members of the military, or any members of America’s “elite.” In a more narrow sense, the “deep state” simply refers to unelected bureaucrats, who are more pro-Biden than they are pro-Trump. However, at the same time, these unelected bureaucrats have no loyalty to Biden, and will gleefully kick him to the curb if they feel they can get a better deal, especially because they think of him as an “old racist white male.”
What losses did the deep state suffer under Trump? Did social media censorship decrease? (No, it increased under Trump.) Did border crossings decrease? (No, Trump’s term in office saw more crossings than ever before.) Did Trump stop the BLM riots, COVID lockdowns, or express vaccine skepticism? (No.)
Did gender ideology stop under Trump? (No, it proceeded unimpeded.)
Did Ukraine lose funding under Trump? No, the pentagon pledged $1.5 billion to Ukraine under Trump.
Trump’s rhetoric on social media, the border, gender, and Ukraine all seem counter to the “deep state,” but when it comes to hard facts, Trump facilitated, tolerated, and allowed censorship, mass immigration, gender revolution, mask mandates, public school closures, BLM rioting, rushed vaccine rollouts, and Ukrainian funding to proceed as scheduled. By contrast, Biden’s term saw the end of censorship, the end of COVID, the end of race riots. Biden can be criticized for worsening immigration, but otherwise, it seems that many differences between Trump and Biden are more rhetorical than practical.
the three factions of the deep state.
America is currently fighting a “cold war” on three fronts:
The Middle East, against Iran.
Ukraine, against Russia.
Taiwan, against China.
Within the military and foreign policy establishment, there is a disagreement about how these conflicts should be fought:
Should America fight all three, simultaneously?
Should America focus exclusively on China and Iran?
Should America focus exclusively on China and Russia?
Should America focus exclusively on Russia and Iran?
Those who target China and Iran, while excluding Russia, represent the pro-Russian MAGA alliance between Zionists and protectionists. They see China as the global superpower, but have ideological, religious, or financial ties to Israel. They essentially view the Cold War as an ideological struggle rather than a geopolitical one, and since Russia is no longer communist, they are happy to give Ukraine to Russia. We could call this the “Carlson” faction, referring to Tucker Carlson’s association with the CIA, which is represented in congress by the House Freedom Caucus, including Matt Gaetz, Marjorie Taylor Green, and Paul Gosar.
Those who target China and Russia, while excluding Iran, seem to be closest to Biden’s camp, represented by “blue anon patriots” like Charles Johnson. Johnson sees no geopolitical benefit from fighting Iran, but sees Russia and China as competitors on a global stage. We could call this the “Johnson” faction, which is represented in congress by the Squad, who are anti-Israel but support the war in Ukraine.
Those who target Russia and Iran, while excluding China, are the least loud, and are essentially being shut out in American politics. Both the Democrats and Republicans are sounding the alarm on China. However, there are plenty of people in our government who are sympathetic to China, such as Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and other Silicon Valley types. They have the least “populist” message and have little public representation in public, but have a say behind closed doors. We could call this the “Gates” faction, which does have quiet support in congress, but no caucus which singles it out for public identification.
A “deep state conspiracy” does not necessitate a monolith deep state. There can be multiple factions within the deep state which disagree. But none of these factions are happy with Biden. He isn’t winning in Ukraine, and he is wishy-washy on Israel. All factions are unhappy with Biden: the Carlson faction hates him, the Johnson faction is disappointed in “genocide Joe,” and the Gates faction is alienated by the Chip Act. Biden has burned all bridges, and is being taken by a controlled media demolition.
If I was a conspiracy theorist, I would counter the myth that Biden is being “fed a cocktail of drugs to keep him lucid” with the idea that his handlers have replaced his nootropics with the wrong dosages, to intentionally sabotage him. This is a scandalous thought, but mere speculation.
The Republican party has serious problems. Evangelical Christianity, conspiracy theories, DR3, wars in the Middle East, crusades against condoms, a preference for dysgenics over abortion, “merit based” immigration, and increasing wealth inequality are all issues where the Republican party is failing. Within the deep state, these failures have not outweighed distaste for Biden. The masters of the media, (billionaires, journalists, and intelligence agencies) have decided to pull the plug and hand Trump the election.
The 2020 election was rigged by mail-in ballots, which violated all precedent, and handed Biden the election. In 2024, the election is rigged all the same by different means.
Debate review.
Biden should have never agreed to this debate. There’s no fixing old age.
That said, Trump’s performance was lackluster. He could have delivered the following lines to better his performance:
"A vote for Joe is a vote for Kamala."
Kamala is extremely unpopular. Bringing up her name is a great strike against Joe, while at the same time implying that Joe is not in control of his own administration.
“The Trump movement is for everyone.”
"Joe is the most divisive president. If you don't vote for him, he says you're not really black. Actually, it's ok to be a black Trump supporter, a Hispanic Trump supporter, or gay Trump voter. While Joe divides us, I will unite this country once again."
This is the type of line that would make suburban white liberals feel more comfortable voting for Trump.
“He doesn’t know what country he’s president of.”
“Joe forgot what country he's the president of. He thinks he's president of Hamas. He thinks he's president of Ukraine. He thinks he's president of Mexico. If that were true, he would be doing a great job, but it's been so bad for our country."
Again, this combines a jab at Biden’s mental competence with a claim that Biden serves international interests rather than putting America first. Trump didn’t use the phrase “America first” enough in the debate, which is a winning phrase.
“Overpopulation is killing our planet.”
"The worst thing for our environment is bringing in millions and millions of people. If you care about the air, if you care about the water, you can't bring in millions and millions of people. They're bringing trash, they're bringing pollution, and frankly, it's unsustainable. Biden’s mistake in East Palestine led to toxic waste everywhere, it’s really disgusting stuff, and it’s killing our children."
Trump has no plan on the environment, but by pivoting to immigration, he can win on this issue. Failing to bring up the East Palestine disaster was a huge missed opportunity.
“Women have the right to be safe.”
"I believe in protecting women's most fundamental rights: the right to be safe, to economic opportunity, to a world-class education, to a future in this country. Joe's migration disaster is going to destroy our economy, destroy our schools, destroy our future, and threatens the safety of every woman with gangs of rapists flooding our border."
Trump’s weakest issue is abortion rights. By pivoting to the economy and immigration, he can avoid dealing with an issue where the majority of the country is liberal.
“Joe is anti-white.”
“Joe is killing our children with criminals at the border, he's indoctrinating our children with anti-white and anti-American lies in the schools, he's sacrificing our children's future with wars in Europe and the middle east. It’s time to stop the killing and time to start putting America first.”
The above quote could have “anti-white” removed and still work, but it would accomplish two things:
Shock value. By calling out anti-white racism, Trump would generate buzz in the media and among his hardcore base, the 40% of the country who believes whites are discriminated against.
Protect the children. The highest priority of suburban moms is the physical safety of their children. By painting Biden as a threat to children, he can appeal to this large voting bloc.
Conclusion
Trump is a shadow of his original campaign in 2025. He is older, slower, and more boring. His first term accomplished very little. Trump funded Ukraine, allowed for tech censorship, permitted historic levels of mass immigration, did nothing to stop gender reassignment surgery, chose not to interfere with mask mandates and public school closures, allowed BLM rioting to blame it on “Biden’s America,” and pushed forward a rushed vaccine. The stock market did great, but working people saw increased deaths to drug abuse and suicide. Given these facts, it’s difficult to see how Trump in 2025 will improve over Trump in 2017, when he only seems to have softened and lost his edge.
Trump is being selected by the deep state because of factional conflict within elites, who prefer him on geopolitical issues to Biden. In 2015, Trump was an outsider with little funding from big donors. In 2024, Trump has a cash advantage over Biden, receiving the full support of Miriam Adelson and Silicon Valley. Just as the 2020 election was rigged by the exceptional introduction of mail-in ballots, so too is the 2024 election rigged by a controlled media apparatus which has turned against Biden.
Will Democrats force Biden out in favor of someone who can appease the deep state, and compromise with their agenda? Will Biden resist this attempt? Will Biden’s polling collapse give RFK a better chance?
My guess is that Biden will make it to November, and lose the popular vote, 47% to 48%. RFK will hit 5% nationally. If Biden is removed, it will certainly make waves and further undermine public trust in democracy as a “fair process,” since his replacement will be selected by the DNC rather than by a primary. We shall see.
Appears the media is turning on Biden in an effort to genuinely get him to step down in order to beat Trump, not hand him victory IMO.