Shocking News: 1% of the Population Does 0.3% of the Crime.

the trans grift.

In 2023, there were 22,380 murders in America. Assuming that 13/50 holds true,¹ 11,190 of those murders were committed by black people.

By contrast, from 2000 to 2022, only 1,676 people have been murdered in school shootings. This means that the ratio of school shootings to black shootings is 0.7 to 100. Not worth talking about. Certainly not worth restructuring our entire society around this drop in the bucket.

Assuming that all school shooters are trans (false), and trans people are 1.4% of the population, then 1.4% of the population is doing 0.34% of the murders. Shocking.

Let’s assume that right-wingers only care about white lives. Since most black murders are black-on-black, let us only consider the lives of white victims in comparing black violence with trans violence.

The data from the FBI indicates that there were 566 black-on-white murders in 2019, while there have been, on average, 76 deaths from school shootings per year since 2000. Let’s further assume that all of those school shooting deaths were white deaths (false, many of them were black and Hispanic students, but we’re trying to steelman the anti-trans position).

This means that a population of 41.31 million blacks (2023) results in 566 white deaths, while a population of 2.8 million transgender people has resulted in 76 deaths per year.

(Remember, this assumes that all school shootings are trans affiliated, and that all victims of school shootings are white, which is a gross overestimate.)

This comes out to a rate of 13.7 white-deaths-per-million black people, and a rate of 27.1 white-deaths-per-million trans people.

But even most conservatives will admit that not all school shootings are perpetrated by trans people. I asked my imaginary conservative friend what percentage of school shooters are trans, and he said to me,

“I don’t know man, trannies are so evil. I bet 25% of school shooters are trans!”

Even assuming this absurd rate of 25%, this gives us a rate of white-deaths-per-million trans people of 6.8, about half that of the black rate.

In reality, trans people only make up 2% of all school shooters, meaning that the white-deaths-per-million trans is actually 0.5, just a small fraction of the black rate.

To put this in perspective: your chances, as a white person, of being killed by an individual black person are 27.4x higher than your chances of being killed by an individual trans person. And there are 40x as many black people as trans people. It’s just an absurd comparison.

No matter how many anecdotal incidents you push in conservative media: trans people are simply not that violent.

If I believed that white deaths were a paramount problem, that they should be eliminated at all costs, even at the cost of all freedoms and liberalisms, the first thing I would do is to bring back race-based segregation. Unless and until conservatives openly advocate for restrictions on racial freedom, their attacks on sexual freedom come across as hypocritical, disproportionate, and hysterical. I cannot take these people seriously: they are either liars, deluded, or paranoid. They have no business having any power whatsoever. You know what? Let’s bring back mental asylums, and sign up Chris Rufo.

1.52 deaths per year is a “wave of violence?”

church shootings.

Let’s also look at church shootings, since that’s what’s in the news. In this analysis, to get the highest possible numbers, we’ll be looking at any shooting within a “faith-based building,” which includes synagogues and mosques. Here are the individual incidents:

The first church shooting I could find was from 1980,² long before the internet or transgenderism. Now let’s add up all the incidents per year:

Assuming that transgenderism began sometime between 2008 and 2016, there’s no evidence here that increasing transgender identity has lead to an increase in deaths due to church shootings per year. The sudden increase came in 2000, which had nothing to do with social media, “the phones,” or trans people. Sorry, Jonathan Haidt.

Church shootings are statistically irrelevant, since there have only been 215 deaths in the last 45 years, many of which have been from synagogues rather than churches. It’s a small fraction of deaths compared to school shootings, which are a small fraction compared to black-on-white shootings.

Conclusion.

There is no explosion of violence against churches. School shootings are statistically irrelevant. In terms of policy, it is irrational to “ban trans people” while letting black people roam free.

When Rufo claims that there is a “wave of trans violence against Christians,” he is referring to 1.5 deaths per year over the last 20 years.

I don’t think Rufo or his fellow conservatives have the power or even the will to “ban transgenderism,” whatever that means. If I ask the most extreme among them exactly how they want to fight “the trans menace,” they might point to Russia’s laws against “gay propaganda” as a model for America.

Would this mean we now have to ban The Satyricon, the Mahabharata, and Ovid’s Metamorphoses, for lightly or even favorably depicting homosexuality and transgenderism? Or do we need to appoint a theocratic bureaucracy with the power to arbitrarily decide what media we are allowed to read and watch?

The problem with school shooters isn’t that they are trans, but that they are narcissists who get off on the idea of Chris Rufo referring to them as a “nihilistic wave of violence.” They only exist because of people like Rufo who infinitely feed into the delusion that they are important: but they are not.

Transgenderism, insofar as it is comorbid with narcissism, is not the cause of narcissism, but a mere symptom. Banning “trans propaganda” won’t solve the problem of narcissism or the problem of violence. Conservatives are surface level thinkers who want to destroy civil liberties on the basis of memes and “vibes.” Facts and logic are not on their side.

I care about reducing murder in America. Murder destroys economic productivity, social trust, and leaves lasting trauma for the family and friends of victims. We should prioritize the reduction of murder. The best way to do that is to increase the clearance rate, which is the rate at which we solve murder cases.

In the 1960s, the clearance rate was close to 90%, and now it has fallen to 50%. This reduction in competency among the police calls for a quantitative and qualitative improvement in policing, focused on detective work, solving cases, not just preventing murders through patrols.

We don’t need to focus on the causes for murder: murderers are murderous, and there is very little that can be done in the short term to reduce their violence. Blaming poverty, lack of education, or “trans ideology” are all scapegoats to distract from the fact that we are doing a terrible job of catching and exiling murderers from society. Low clearance rates encourage murders (you won’t get caught) and allow murderers to become repeat offenders.

Let’s double the national police force, and prioritize hiring high IQ detectives who can use DNA, AI facial recognition software, surveillance footage, and cellphone data to get that clearance rate back to 90%. There’s no reason why, with all these technological advances, we should have a worse rate of solving murders than we had in the 1960s.

1. The number from the 2019 data is that 48.9% of murders are perpetrated by blacks.

2. I’m excluding 19th violence against Mormons - - no offense Mormons.